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«News Coverage Ежедневный отчет о публикациях Упоминания FOREX CLUB в российских СМИ Упоминания FOREX CLUB в англоязычных СМИ ...»

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The expert does not rule out that for this reason, the National Bank and other institutions in Ukraine were more confident "in the best prospects in the world economy and the impact on the economy of Ukraine." Instead, "the global economy worsens, the economic growth slowed sharply, that the CIS countries, the Middle East, China." Therefore "failed these optimistic mood" reinforce "the best foreign trade prospects. The result - reduced exports, metallurgy, chemical industry. " "The only thing that supports us, is the export of agricultural products - Mykola Ivchenko. But this is not enough. All the same, we have seen a dramatic slowdown in the economy. " Bagnet, 11/11/2012, No tranche of the IMF in Ukraine "will be terrible" - opinion NBU has to spend its reserves near dangerous levels because of the sharp deceleration of the world economy News Coverage National Bank of Ukraine is still possible to support the hryvnia, but without external borrowing reserves fall to dangerous levels. This opinion was in exclusive comments "Bagnet" stated the head of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Mykola Ivchenko. According to the expert, with the completion of the parliamentary elections, "the devaluation of hryvnia has not disappeared, it goes smoothly, the same pace, but it does not stop."

Commenting on the reduction of foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine for only $ 2 billion in October 2012, Nikolay Ivchenko said that "we need another $ 1 billion to pay the IMF, it turns out, in December, we come to the critical level of foreign exchange reserves." Given that "the situation in the euro area has not improved, it becomes dangerous."

The best way out of the situation said the expert support of the opinion of the NBU Council to consent to the conditions of the IMF in exchange for a tranche. "We have the stock, but delay is dangerous.... If we give money to the IMF at the end of December 2012 or January 2013, then we can hold out.... But if we do not give credit, then it will be scary." As the expert said, "we have to be more substantial devaluation of... What? We can only guess. " Our product, 11/11/2012, World Currency Market: Jokes aside, investors hedge risk (Review) The demand for safe-haven risen sharply because of the prospect gain evrokrizisa "fiscal cliff" in the United States.

Investors turned to safe assets, insuring increased risks of coming winter Bolivar will not sustain two After a scant two weeks on the news, when the main lot of the market - to win back the sluggish macroeconomic statistics, the first full-fledged seven-day event in November has stood crowded. And the fact that investors have forgotten how to contain the emotions, or tried to make up for lost time - as soon as the market set off to the winds.

There were ups and dips, the pursuit and throwing until the end of the week is not to determine the trend in the divestment of assets in "safe haven". Thus, the tendency end of October - the first days of November. But if investors are then insured risks "just in case", but now they were taking money in the safe zone due to well-defined and far from brilliant prospects for the global economy. Major political events mainly recoup the negative scenario, as understood in the context of macroeconomic statistics. Typical for the period from 5 to 9 November was that the positive lead caused a powerful but brief splash in the market, and then took the top pessimistic tendencies.

Promising presidential race in the U.S. has been played in September and October, so investors are extremely cautiously accepted the results. After a brief hesitation, the election was won back by the negative pattern, the demand for "safe haven" has grown. Market players do not get an answer to the question of how a new old the White House intends to overcome the so-called "fiscal meltdown."

Even less encouraging information received from the EU. Discussion of the EU common budget almost turned into a geopolitical crisis - a discussion led to a sharp conflict between News Coverage Germany and the United Kingdom, up to the last statement of withdrawal from the EU.

Angela Merkel had to personally visit the Albion to try to overcome strained. At issue are the costs for the operation of supranational structures of the EU. Of the EU, led by Britain, believes that you need to save. Germany - for "adequate funding." In addition, a lot of trouble and delivered "mischievous" Greece. In fact, Germany has refused to feed Greece, and the government of this country rests in the balance. After the adoption of the "budget savings" Greece embraced massive strike.

The strikes were observed in Spain, which is problematic because it has not clarified its position on the issue of financial assistance. In the second half of the week Spanish bond yields went up sharply. Add dark colors and the European Commission, worsening outlook for the EU's economic growth rate for the year to 0.3% and to 0.4% for the same period in 2013. For the euro area in 2013 forecast revised from 1% to 0.1%.

And in such a situation, the ECB makes a soothing speeches and refuses to revise the interest rate (0.75%), effectively acknowledging that while there is no improvement, but also a significant deterioration - as well. Judging by the reaction of the market, investors do not believe so, how many would like to believe.

And, perhaps, they would have reason to be optimistic, if not near-term "fiscal collapse" in the U.S.. One crisis - it is all right, but the two crises, albeit that local, threaten the deepening economic recession in the global economy. Is indirectly confirmed participants meeting of finance "Big Twenty" in Mexico City. "High risk and weak global economic growth" - that's what that is. And it is unlikely in the next few months, followed by a positive breakthrough. Then how would the new global crisis is not to fall down. Nothing to do but to insure risks.

For the euro Monday began on Wednesday If it is true that Monday - the day of heavy, he started for the euro on Wednesday. A November 5 - the first day of the week - The euro together with the U.S. dollar was trading at lows of $ 1.2779 (a seven-week low) because of waiting in the Greek parliament vote on the "budget savings." We note that on Friday, November 2 Euro closed the week at $ 1. in position against the U.S. dollar.

On Tuesday, November 6 win back market thesis finance ministers «G-20", so that the euro is on the starting position was under pressure. Later in the morning economic data out of the Eurozone, which turned moderately negative: all the indicators showed a decrease, in particular, the index of business activity in the services sector in Germany, France and the euro zone as a whole in October 2012, and the volume of production orders for the same country and by euro area in September-October 2012. Euro managed to remain at $ 1. to the U.S. dollar exclusively nervousness because of the elections in the U.S..

Wednesday 7 November was the "day of shocks" for the euro, because this day the market win back American elections. News of the victory of Barack Obama's rise has caused the euro, but in the second half of the day, this information has been evaluated in a negative spirit, because the second term of Obama has big risks for the economy. This has strengthened the demand for "safe haven", while the euro fell to $ 1.2760. Eurocurrency not help restore statement of the ECB Mario Draghi that the crisis in the eurozone has an impact on Germany. Published indices for the euro area, in particular a decline in retail sales in October 2012, did the rest.

News Coverage On Thursday, November 8, investors were focused on the ECB, which was the day to take a decision on interest rates. Euro together with the U.S. dollar traded unevenly until it left the data on the reduction of the positive balance of trade in France and the euro zone as a whole in September 2012 (-5.03 points and -17 billion, respectively). The ECB did not revise the rate of interest (0.75%), but the intransigence of the finance ministers of G-20 on further lending to Greece pushed the euro to $ 1.2751. In this case, the news of the rate of the ECB practically been played.

The outflow of assets in the safe zone continued on Friday 9 November. The euro in tandem with the U.S. dollar was also under pressure from negative macroeconomic statistics from the EU. In particular, in France, in September 2012, industrial production fell by 2.7%, while the forecast was 1%. Reassuring statements of the Ministry of Economy of Germany could not influence the trend. So the euro closed the week at the current minimum $ 1.2713 to the U.S. dollar.

U.S. dollar succeeded on fears Movement on the U.S. dollar this whole complex was the November week though rising, but ambiguous. On the one hand, the U.S. dollar to support positive economic data, coupled with expectations of the presidential election. On the other, finish race for the White House adds an element of unpredictability, so the U.S. dollar is not symmetrical growing increase in demand for "safe haven". Played a role, and speculation on Mitt Romney, from which players expect cautious, if he wins the presidential race, decisive action to reduce the budget deficit.

With those specs you can see why the election of Barack Obama had won back in the negative type, supporting the U.S. dollar.

From Thursday 8 November at the forefront of the U.S. dollar reached statistical data. In particular, the growth in consumer credit in September 2012 to $ 11.4 billion (forecast $ 10. billion). At the same time, investors are not impressed increasing amount of inventory at the warehouses of wholesale trade (1.1% vs. 0.4% forecast), which can be evaluated as a positive thing, and as a negative. Characteristically, investors remained in the "safe haven" even when there was a positive index potrebnastroeny from Reuters / Michigan in November (84.9 points versus 82.6 points forecast). The trade balance in September 2012 just pleased reduced by 41.5 points against 44.9 points forecast, while the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week was $ 355,000 against the expected 373 thousand.

Group of local currency of the EU continued to take the U.S. dollar in response to the trend of asset removal to a safe area. In particular, the British pound against the U.S. dollar declined from 5 to 9 November from $ 1.5964 to $ 15,924. The release of macroeconomic data on the UK illustrate the increased pressure of the debt crisis, even in relatively prosperous EU countries. PMI index in the services sector in October fell 50.6 points to critical (forecast 52 points), revealing that "jumped" from a long-held mark of 51 points.

Industrial production in October fell by 1.7% against the forecast of 0.6%. Although the Bank of England did not revise the interest rate (after ECB), and the GDP in October rose by 0.5%, the pound went down with the euro.

Swiss pound against the U.S. dollar also fell under the influence of a weakening euro and demand for safe assets. A week position franc against the U.S. dollar weakened to $ 1. to $ 1.0544, despite the fact that in Switzerland came out moderately positive economic data. In particular, the decrease in the index of consumers in III quarter by 17 points instead News Coverage of the expected 20, and the unemployment rate at 2.9% in October 2012 (the forecast 3%).

But investors wary reduction in reserves of the National Bank of Switzerland in foreign currency (424.4 billion francs, against 432 billion forecast). After deflection under this news franc could not recover.

But JPY pair with the U.S. dollar with a vengeance to win back losses the previous weeks from Monday 5 November to Friday 9 November yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar from $ 1.2460 to $ 1.2610 (one hundred yen). Growth of the yen contributed to an increase in demand for "safe haven". Here, the yen was strong enough competition to the U.S. dollar, despite a decline in the index of leading indicators in Japan in September 2012 to 91.7 points against 91.8 points the forecast decrease in the index of the current situation of Japan Eco Watchers in October 2012 to 39.0 points against 40.6 points forecast. All week, the yen was rushing out of the fall in growth, while on Friday did not leave positive data on industrial production in China (up 9.6% vs. 9.5% forecast) and the increase in retail sales in China in October to 14.5% (forecast 14.4%). In Japan, consumer confidence in October coincided with a forecast of 39.7 points. These data support the optimistic view of the pace of economic development in the region, allowing the yen to go to the growth of the U.S.

dollar.

Greece and the United States all hung on a hook Next week is expected to complex with the possible strengthening of the U.

S. dollar. This in an exclusive commentary IA "Our Products" said the head of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Mykola Ivchenko. In his view, concerns about slowing U.S. economy, in particular, in connection with the "fiscal collapse" and an expected negative impact on the world economy will encourage further diversion of capital into the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the EU 'all eyes will be on Greece. " November 15 is expected to publish a report the "troika" of creditors of Greece. "Therefore, in the early weeks of the euro will be under pressure, and after November 15, quotes the euro will depend on the content of the report," three ". As the expert noted, "if the report is positive, give Greece the money, on Thursday-Friday, the euro could" jump "up." Moreover, according to Nikolay Ivchenko, this option seems the most likely. At the same time, "if the report is negative for Greece, it is possible to further decline in the euro against the U.S. dollar." Likely range of fluctuations of quotations in the euro against the U.S. dollar next week, says Nikolay Ivchenko, may be in the range of $ 1,2560-1,2850.

http://ianp.com.ua/ru/news/company/read/ News of Sevastopol, 10.11.2012, Ukrainian business, registered in Cyprus, is now required to pay the same taxes as in Ukraine The two governments signed a new convention on avoidance of double taxation. According to the press service of the Cabinet. The signing took place in the framework of the official visit of President Viktor Yanukovych to Cyprus. Thus, successfully concluded negotiations that ran 15 years, from 1997.

Cypriots did not want to lose revenue, because every company listed on the Cyprus island paying by fixed tax is 4.25% of the profits and nothing more, and in a country where it operates, do not pay anything at all in the budget. And, for example, in Ukraine, taxes are 5- times higher, so the Cypriot authorities feared Ukrainian capital outflow, which is there for $ 14.5 billion more than in any country of the world.

News Coverage If before the budget of Ukraine did not receive from the Ukrainian-Cyprus firms do, but now big business, registered there will be more transparent. As Finance Minister Yuriy Kolobov, who signed the document on behalf of the Cabinet, it will increase our revenues in the state budget by 1 billion hryvnia.

Financial analysts call it revolutionary and beneficial agreement for Ukraine. President Alexander Ukranalittsentra Okhrimenko says compromise solution: business, registered in Cyprus, finally will pay tax in Ukraine, but less than we have on.

According to the head of IAC Forex club in Ukraine Mykola Ivchenko, tax increases will reduce the profit of our business, but that does not mean that the offshore companies withdraw from Cyprus: "All over the world there is a struggle for the payment of taxes, close the offshore zones. A Cyprus - an EU member, and for them it is not a long time offshore, only Ukraine and Russia have there benefits, so could put pressure on Cyprus and the EU. " Only the ex-secretary of the Cabinet Victor Lissitzky fears that additional budget revenues from income from offshore may be directed officials to investment projects, where possible "kickbacks and cuts", so need a tight control.

Economic News, 11/10/2012, What will the dollar in November How will the exchange rates in the near future DOLLAR COURSE MAY GO SLOW GROWTH As predicted by our experts in the course of October, the "bugs" are slowly but steadily growing. The average price at which it could be bought in exchange for a month tightened from 8.16 UAH / $ to 8.19 UAH / $. And yesterday, has already reached 8.20 UAH / $. These signals are many suggested that it's time has finally come to stock American currency. So now the U.S. to hand over all the banks less often, and want to buy them more often. So do not be surprised if at some point in the chosen branch office of the bank may not have the desired amount of "bucks." The fact that small amounts are usually sold without a problem.

But a large amount (more than $ 1 million) may have to be ordered in advance by bank transfer or purchase.

Slow growth. In November and December also not be expected to reduce the cost of "green." But surges up will not. Experts predict that by the end, the exchange rate will range 8,20-8,40 UAH / $. "The fact is that before the elections NBU restrain falling dollar currency hryvnia infusion and withdrawal from banks, - explains the asset manager of Concorde Denis Kostyuk. - But now the hryvnia deficit reached alarming proportions: Interbank rates as high as 50% per annum. In such circumstances, the banking system can not last long. Thus, the National Bank will be forced to give banks the hryvnia, which will lead to increased demand for the currency and increase the rate of the dollar. " Also reduce the cost of the hryvnia NBU will force, according to the analyst of investment group "Art Capital" Stanislav Zelenetsky, no sign of recovery in exports (due to which the country receives foreign exchange earnings) and the resumption of IMF lending.

SUPPORT. But at the same time, will be present and the factors that support the hryvnia.

"NBU continues the policy of stable exchange rate, while not unduly carried away by any particular measure - the chairman of the Board of" National Credit Bank "Igor Klimenko. - In addition, pre-New Year period is always accompanied by a lack of resources in national News Coverage currency in the banking sector, which will support the hryvnia exchange rate in the current year. In addition, the elections were over and the excitement in the market because of them pass. " Will weaken the dollar and events in the U.S.. "There's November 6 presidential election, and the political instability in the country always helps reduce the cost of the national currency in the world" - gives an example of expert information and analytical center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Maria Salnikova.

No turning back. One thing is clear for sure - to the old rate, which was at the beginning of the year, we will not be back. "To return to the previous range of hryvnia National Bank will have to spend a lot of foreign exchange reserves - the expert explains the analytical department Weltrade Sergei Boriychuk. - Although at the moment them enough for the implementation of any technical problem (nearly $ 30 billion) and spending it on protivorynochnye action pointless. " EU: will go up In October, the euro is also "obey" our forecasts and rose slightly. The course of the sale in exchange rose from 10.54 USD / EUR to 10.72 UAH / EUR. Yesterday he stood at 10.64 UAH / EUR.

DEBTS AND HURRICANE. In November - early December, according to our experts, the chance of another rate increase. On average, the currency of the Old World can rise to UAH / EUR. But, in contrast to the U.S., its rate will not grow steadily. On the contrary, during the month of his "shake." According to Sergei Boriychuka, the cash market value of European currency (sales in exchange) will range 10,50-11,00 UAH / EUR. A projected Maria Salnikova "field of action" will be even more widely - from 10.33 to 11.04 (ie, + / -2.6%), UAH / EUR.

Against the euro, will "play" of the negotiations with the creditors of Greece (the IMF, World Bank), the weak data on euro area GDP growth rate for the III quarter and rising unemployment in the EU (currently 11.6%). And this at a time in the U.S. labor market is recovering. And in favor of the euro, "favors" the political instability in the United States because of the presidential election. Well as indirect effect on support for the euro, according to analysts and Maria Salnikova Erste Group, will need to restore the U.S. economy after Hurricane Sandy.

http://news.eizvestia.com/news-finance/full/chto-zhdet-kurs-dollara-v-noyabre Finmarket, 09.11.2012, Dollar hit the U.S. trap! - GC "Forex Club" The Russian currency fell into a trap and can not escape from the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency - indicates Head of Research Complex "Forex Club" Andrew Dirgin. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40.21 rubles.

"Yesterday, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus of the Russian Federation was 159,900,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion dollars United States more than in the same period last year. Partly, this picture has been developed against the background of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports.

Nevertheless, we believe that an increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term. " News Coverage Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest in Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also, as a consequence, to an increase in demand for the Russian currency, experts predict GC "Forex Club ". However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. According to A. Dirgin, risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

http://www.finmarket.ru/z/experts/view.asp?id= Finmarket, 09.11.2012, Precious metals increased, but growth could slow - GC "Forex Club" On Thursday, November 8, at the beginning of the trading session on the world gold price and silver traded almost unchanged, the analyst GC "Forex Club" Michael Verdyan. Prices were kept in narrow ranges due to restrained investment activity in anticipation of the next ECB meeting on interest rates and the traditional press conference, President Mario Draghi.

Lingering concerns over the slow pace of global economic growth, as well as anxiety about the spread of Europe's debt crisis also did not add optimism, thus preventing the growth of precious assets.

However, in early U.S. trading session, the precious metals have lost a part of earlier position against the release of positive macro data on the number of initial claims for unemployment and the U.S. trade deficit. Pessimistic assessment of the state of the European economy by the chairman of the European regulator Draghi also helped improve investor sentiment. Soon, however, quotes precious metals rebounded, lost correlation with risky assets. As a result, the price of gold for yesterday rose 0.88% to 1731.97 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, while silver quotations rose 1.56% to 32.292 dollars per ounce.

On Friday, during the Asian trading session, the precious metal traded at a higher, focusing on the dynamics of exchange rates. Positive economic data on industrial production and retail sales in China, indicating that the worlds second largest economy will avoid a "hard landing", also contributed to the growth of prices of metals. Meanwhile, the slowdown in consumer inflation in China has allowed investors to expect a further easing of monetary policy by the Chinese regulator.

"However, we believe that the rise in precious metals can slow down by the intended increase of the U.S. currency due to concerns about the situation in Greece, - experts predict GC" Forex Club. "- The news of a possible postponement of the decision on granting Greece the next tranche of financial assistance until the end of November, returned to the debt problems of the euro area to the front. Discussions on this issue are likely to be the main topic of the meeting the eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday. " According to M. Verdyan, have an impact on investor sentiment and the value of the precious metals today can also scheduled economic data from the U.S.. The focus of the market will be the preliminary data for the indicator of confidence from the University of Michigan in November, as well as figures on change in stocks in the warehouses of wholesale trade for September. According to the expectations indicators from overseas are likely to be News Coverage evidence of some deterioration in the situation and weaken the dollar, and therefore, the precious metals may increase. However, if, as expected data from the U.S. will go better, and metals can be reduced. The estimated range of the value of gold on Friday could 1720.0 1742.0 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, and silver - 31.95 -32.65 dollars per troy ounce, concludes the analyst GC "Forex Club".

http://www.finmarket.ru/z/experts/view.asp?id= AK & M, 09.11.2012, Russian currency fell into a trap The Russian currency fell into a trap, and can not break out of the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40. rubles.

The day before, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus totaled 159.9 RF billion U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion more than in the same period last year. In part, this picture has been developed against the backdrop of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports. However, we believe that the increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term.

Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest with the Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also as a consequence, the demand for the Russian currency.

However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. Risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

Dirgin Andrew, Head of Research CC FOREX CLUB http://www.akm.ru/rus/comments/2012/november/09/ns_16872.htm AK & M, 09.11.2012, precious metals increased, but growth may slow On Thursday, November 8, at the beginning of the trading session on the world gold price and silver were traded unchanged. Prices were kept in narrow ranges due to restrained investment activity in anticipation of the next ECB meeting on interest rates and the traditional press conference, President Mario Draghi. Lingering concerns over the slow pace of global economic growth, as well as anxiety about the spread of Europe's debt crisis also did not add optimism, thus preventing the growth of precious assets.

However, in early U.S. trading session, the precious metals have lost a part of earlier position against the release of positive macro data on the number of initial claims for unemployment and the U.S. trade deficit. Pessimistic assessment of the state of the European economy by the chairman of the European regulator Draghi also helped improve investor sentiment.

News Coverage Soon, however, quotes precious metals rebounded, lost correlation with risky assets. As a result, the price of gold for yesterday rose 0.88% to 1731.97 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, while silver quotations rose 1.56% to 32.292 dollars per ounce.

On Friday, during the Asian trading session, the precious metal traded at a higher, focusing on the dynamics of exchange rates. Positive economic data on industrial production and retail sales in China, indicating that the worlds second largest economy will avoid a "hard landing", also contributed to the growth of prices of metals. Meanwhile, the slowdown in consumer inflation in China has allowed investors to expect a further easing of monetary policy by the Chinese regulator.

However, we believe that the growth of precious metals can slow down by the intended increase of the U.S. currency because of fears about the situation in Greece. The news of a possible postponement of the decision on granting Greece the next tranche of financial assistance by the end of November, the euro zone's debt problems returned to the fore.

Discussions on this issue are likely to be the main topic of the meeting the eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday.

Impact on investor sentiment and the value of the precious metals today can also scheduled economic data from the U.S.. The focus of the market will be the preliminary data for the indicator of confidence from the University of Michigan in November, as well as figures on change in stocks in the warehouses of wholesale trade for September. According to the expectations indicators from overseas are likely to be evidence of some deterioration in the situation and weaken the dollar, and therefore, the precious metals may increase.

However, if, as expected data from the U.S. will go better, and metals can be reduced. The estimated range of the value of gold on Friday could 1720.0 - 1742.0 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, and silver - 31.95 -32.65 dollars per troy ounce.

Mikael Verdyan analyst GC FOREX CLUB http://www.akm.ru/rus/comments/2012/november/09/ns_16871.htm MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: Greek drama continues The EUR / USD is trading slightly higher, rebounding from two-month lows against the technical oversold. European currency loses dollar for a third week in a row on the weakening of interest in risky assets around the world. In the United States looming "fiscal cliff", the eurozone economy shows no signs of recovery, and progress in fiscal consolidation in Greece is poor.

Yesterday's data on foreign trade in Germany showed that the crisis did not shy away from, and the largest economy in the eurozone. In September, exports and imports fell by 2.5% m / m and 1.6% m / m, respectively, exceeding the expectations of economists.

In addition, the leaked information from knowledgeable sources that Greece could delay the transfer of the next tranche, stepped up pressure on the European currency. Despite the fact that recently the Greek Parliament approved another bill of spending cuts and tax increases to $ 13.5 billion, the finance ministers of the euro zone may postpone a decision to grant Athens next tranche of cash assistance in the amount of 31.5 billion euros to the end of November. In the Greek treasury money ends November 16.

News Coverage According to our estimates, the strengthening of the euro in tandem with the dollar is temporary in the technical correction amid oversold, and soon around the resistance level of 1.28 can be expected resumption of sales. Next week, the EUR / USD could slide to support area 1,2650-1,2675 from which are likely to begin speculative buying. Note also that in the course of a three-week decline was formed wedge reversal pattern, which gives hope for corrective growth in the near future.

MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: OIL: How to avoid new sales?

The world oil market on Thursday, November 8, futures prices have stabilized near the close of the previous day. Light Sweet barrel on urgent Mercantile Exchange NYMEX closed the session in positive territory at around 0.34 $ 85.02 $. Brent oil price on the electronic commodity exchange ICE put on weight $ 0.37, reaching $ 107.11 a barrel.

According to our observations, the quotations of "black gold" after a collapse on the eve of the consolidation formed 84 $ -85,70 $ Light, 106,50 $ -108,20 $ Brent. Investors are focusing on the key news from the EU (ECB meeting on the basic interest rate), and economic statistics from the U.S.. As expected, the European regulator has kept interest rates at 0.75%, and the comments by ECB President Mario Draghi at the traditional press conference once again underlined the weakness of the European economy. Against this background, the price of December futures Brent formed a session low at around $ 106.12, where there was a demand from the short-term buyers.

U.S. economic data again witnessed an improvement in the climate sector of the labor market. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (Initial Jobless Claims) for the reporting week, November 3 was 355 thousand, were better than analysts' consensus forecast of 370 thousand Further, the September report on the trade balance have to reduce the deficit from 43.79 billion dollars to 41 and 55 billion dollars, its highest value since February 2011. Against this background futures Light Sweet were able to secure support area $ 84 a breakthrough, increasing the chances of a technical rebound.

On Friday, November 9, the Bulls will try to take advantage of positive data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. November is expected to rise to 83 indicator points, which may contribute to recovery of oil prices at the end of this week.

According to our estimates, the risks of falling prices following areas 84,30 $ Light, 106 $ Brent still remain. If we consider that investors' reactions to positive economic news from the U.S. does not lead to sustainable growth, new attempts oil prices to rise to levels of 87,70 $ Light, 108 $ -109 $ Brent could provoke a new wave of selling.

MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: Stocks: Investors flee the Russian market!

Attention to Novotek!

According to the latest data EPFR, withdrawal of international funds investing in Russian securities, continued the fifth week in a row. A week before the November 7 volume outflow of 71 million U.S. dollars. Among the emerging markets - Asian countries favorites. Negative trend continues, this is partly due to the uncertainty in the U.S., where investors are pondering the outcome and yet rely on the "Rally of obligation." This is a testament to reduce appetite for risk.

News Coverage The situation on the Russian sites reflects environment on global stock markets. Europe is losing between 0.7%. MICEX is reduced by 0.8%, the RTS lost 1.2%. MICEX broke the psychologically important level of 1400 points and now a lot will depend on how quickly the developed markets will recover, and after them, and large developing countries.

While major investment ideas in the market is the Power chips amid plans to consolidate the sector and producers of precious metals. Gold adds to the price of up to 1737 dollars per ounce, our forecast until the end of the year is $ 1,750. As a result of 0.6% adds Polyus Gold.

In our opinion, the world price of silver will increase faster than the gold price up to U.S. $ per troy ounce. It can support Polymetal shares, which is already growing at 0.8%.

Of the other major events today publication reporting independent gas producer - company NOVATEK under IFRS for the first nine months. Shares of the most attractive in the sector with the growth of its sales in Russia (in the portfolio of contracts added E.on and Fortum) and the beginning of a major project "Yamal - LNG." The market expects the positive statements.

MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: EUR / USD: Draghi confirmed worsening of the crisis At yesterday's press conference, the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi explained the steps undertaken by his department and confirmed further continued loose monetary policy.

Despite the fact that the ECB's interest rate is 0.75% per annum, changes in the direction of further easing is expected. However, the decline in the rate of the economy, the threat of inflation in the euro zone is not present, and therefore scope for further rate cut is still there. Now the fundamental position Eurozone certainly much better than the situation in the UK, the U.S. or Japan, but to calm financial markets and restore the normal domestic demand, it is necessary to accelerate the process of structural reforms within the eurozone.

One of these innovative techniques to create a single banking supervisor in 2013. The faster the EU governments, will realize its aims in life, the more normalized markets.

But the rapid recovery is not expected to have, especially since the ECB is not yet able to start the mechanism of redemption of bonds, an obstacle to this is the lack of a formal request for assistance from Spain.

From a technical point of view, we expect the corrective movement to 1.2877 and prefer to buy from 1.2750.

MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: Trading ruble hit the U.S. trap!

The Russian currency fell into a trap, and can not break out of the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40. rubles.

The day before, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus totaled 159.9 RF billion U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion more than in the same period last News Coverage year. In part, this picture has been developed against the backdrop of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports. However, we believe that the increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term.

Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest with the Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also as a consequence, the demand for the Russian currency.

However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. Risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

MFD.ru, 09.11.2012, FOREX CLUB: Macroeconomics: the U.S. economy is on the edge of the "fiscal cliff" After winning the U.S. presidential election of Barack Obama's current economic policies are unlikely to undergo significant changes. However, the newly re-elected president will need to have in the shortest time to find a solution to the problem of "fiscal cliff" in confronting him Congress, controlled by Republicans.

At the end of 2012 expires Act tax breaks known as the "Act on tax incentives, extension of unemployment insurance and the creation of new jobs", adopted by the Bush administration and extended by Obama in 2010. When planning the budget for 2013 will also decrease the cost of "Act on the control of the budget", adopted in 2011. In total the entry into force of these changes may result in reduced total domestic demand for $ 600 billion, equivalent to 6% of the U.S. GDP.


Barack Obama can and has won the presidential race with a sensitive benefit, but at the same time the elections are held in the Congress Republicans suffered very little loss, and he is still under their control. Accordingly, the initiatives of the newly elected president will be hard to find understanding among legislators, and their progress will be much more difficult.

Moreover, the time for solving the problem is a little less than two months.

Representatives of both parties and the White House have already met on Wednesday, nobyarya to designate their position to negotiate. According to the administration of President Obama has met with all the influential members of Congress, some of which signaled that the agreements will be achieved very easily.

In the center of the struggle will be changes to the act on tax breaks, which account for the lion's share of the problem of "fiscal cliff." The current president during the election campaign emphasized that indulgences should enjoy those Americans whose income is less than 250,000 a year, and for all the other benefits to expire in 2012. Obviously, the representatives of the Republican Party, which traditionally consists of representatives of the richest sections of the U.S. population, is unlikely to easily accept such a scenario.

Investors have welcomed a possible confrontation sale of shares and the demand for risky assets. Key U.S. stock indices (S & P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average) lost about 2.5 each in the first trading day after the election. The dollar is in great News Coverage demand as a defensive asset. Despite the improving macroeconomic data from the United States, the events associated with the "budget cliff" will play a key role in determining the movements in the major financial markets around the world in the next month or two.

SCREEN, 09.11.2012, Market Rates, 5 - 9 November The U.S. dollar has strengthened its position somewhat, from 5 to 9 November as the results of the presidential elections in the U.S. boosted concern about the problem of "fiscal cliff."

Against this background, investors sold assets related to economic growth, and to direct resources to the dollar and the yen, as traditional currency havens. USDX dollar index gained only 0.3%, but it is a minor change was largely due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against him.

The single European currency has come under pressure again. The EUR / USD broke through the technically important support level of 1.28 and tested the 1.2715 mark. During this period there was no significant macroeconomic published statistics and results of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB and the press conference of his head, Mario Draghi did not bring a market participant no surprises and they were ignored. On traders influenced the overall strengthening of the dollar throughout the market and the continued adverse external background around the eurozone. Toward the close of the week the euro traded against the "American" at the level of 1.2730.

The British pound spent a quiet week. Sterling continues to feel more or less confident against the dollar. Despite the fact that published earlier in the week the index of business optimism from Markit questioned maintaining good economic growth in the fourth quarter, "Briton" while ignoring the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Accordingly, the cross-rate EUR / GBP dropped to around 0.7975.

The Australian dollar has strengthened its position somewhat after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised investors again left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.25%. The regulator was of the view that its previous decline already have had some positive effect on the economy and chose to take a break.

The Japanese yen was in demand as a defensive asset amid growing concerns related to the "fiscal cliff." At the closing weeks of the USD / JPY again tested support 79.25.

Forecast for the week 12 to 16 November The main events of the week from 12 to 16 November, may have a significant impact on the prospects for the dollar will be the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market USA (Wednesday, November 14, 23:00 GMT), as well as data on consumer price inflation (Thursday November 15, 17:30 GMT ). In his last official statement issued after a meeting of FOMC, regulators have noted some increased level of inflation, and therefore the statistics on price movements may have an impact on the exchange market.

The European currency is under pressure as the dollar strengthened as currency shelter. In addition, the European debt crisis continued to keep investors on their toes, and economic data from the euro area deteriorated from month to month. On Tuesday, November Center for Economic Research ZEW will publish updates on indicators of business optimism in Germany, and if they will again be negative, the euro will continue to decline. We believe that the EUR / USD has a good chance to test 1.2550 support.

News Coverage Bidders for the British pound will be expected to publish a quarterly report on inflation, which will be held on Wednesday 14 November at 14.30 GMT. At the same time the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and some members of the Monetary Policy Committee will hold a press conference. The situation in the UK economy is very confusing now. Latest GDP figure for the third quarter reflected its strong growth, but business confidence index for the first month of the fourth did not give reason to assume that this trend will be sustained. The British currency until feels confident, but in this situation, the application of the monetary authorities can significantly influence its movement. In terms of technical analysis, in case of further strengthening of the dollar throughout the market and overcome the 1. support, the pair GBP / USD opens the road to a mark 1.5850.

Economic Calendar for the Australian dollar in the coming week is empty. From 12 to November, will not be published any data that may have a significant effect on his position.

We believe that the main pair AUD / USD will move depending on the dynamics of the U.S.

currency. On the basis of technical analysis, it may be noted that, to maintain its charge up very important to keep the support of 1.0380. Her breakout may lower quotes in the region 1.03.

In the absence of significant news, USD / JPY has a good chance to continue a downward spiral and can touch support 78.80.

Valery Polkhovsky analyst SC FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 09.11.2012, Trading ruble hit the U.S. trap!

The Russian currency fell into a trap, and can not break out of the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40. rubles.

The day before, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus totaled 159.9 RF billion U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion more than in the same period last year. In part, this picture has been developed against the backdrop of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports. However, we believe that the increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term.

Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest with the Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also as a consequence, the demand for the Russian currency.

However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. Risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

Dirgin Andrew, Head of Research CC FOREX CLUB News Coverage SCREEN, 09.11.2012, macroeconomics: the U.S. economy is on the edge of the "fiscal cliff" After winning the U.S. presidential election of Barack Obama's current economic policies are unlikely to undergo significant changes. However, the newly re-elected president will need to have in the shortest time to find a solution to the problem of "fiscal cliff" in confronting him Congress, controlled by Republicans.

At the end of 2012 expires Act tax breaks known as the "Act on tax incentives, extension of unemployment insurance and the creation of new jobs", adopted by the Bush administration and extended by Obama in 2010. When planning the budget for 2013 will also decrease the cost of "Act on the control of the budget", adopted in 2011. In total the entry into force of these changes may result in reduced total domestic demand for $ 600 billion, equivalent to 6% of the U.S. GDP.


Barack Obama can and has won the presidential race with a sensitive benefit, but at the same time the elections are held in the Congress Republicans suffered very little loss, and he is still under their control. Accordingly, the initiatives of the newly elected president will be hard to find understanding among legislators, and their progress will be much more difficult.

Moreover, the time for solving the problem is a little less than two months.

Representatives of both parties and the White House have already met on Wednesday, nobyarya to designate their position to negotiate. According to the administration of President Obama has met with all the influential members of Congress, some of which signaled that the agreements will be achieved very easily.

In the center of the struggle will be changes to the act on tax breaks, which account for the lion's share of the problem of "fiscal cliff." The current president during the election campaign emphasized that indulgences should enjoy those Americans whose income is less than 250,000 a year, and for all the other benefits to expire in 2012. Obviously, the representatives of the Republican Party, which traditionally consists of representatives of the richest sections of the U.S. population, is unlikely to easily accept such a scenario.

Investors have welcomed a possible confrontation sale of shares and the demand for risky assets. Key U.S. stock indices (S & P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average) lost about 2.5 each in the first trading day after the election. The dollar is in great demand as a defensive asset. Despite the improving macroeconomic data from the United States, the events associated with the "budget cliff" will play a key role in determining the movements in the major financial markets around the world in the next month or two.

Valery Polkhovsky analyst SC FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 09.11.2012, metal market: precious metals increased, but growth may slow On Thursday, November 8, at the beginning of the trading session on the world gold price and silver were traded unchanged. Prices were kept in narrow ranges due to restrained investment activity in anticipation of the next ECB meeting on interest rates and the traditional press conference, President Mario Draghi. Lingering concerns over the slow pace of global economic growth, as well as anxiety about the spread of Europe's debt crisis also did not add optimism, thus preventing the growth of precious assets.

News Coverage However, in early U.S. trading session, the precious metals have lost a part of earlier position against the release of positive macro data on the number of initial claims for unemployment and the U.S. trade deficit. Pessimistic assessment of the state of the European economy by the chairman of the European regulator Draghi also helped improve investor sentiment.

Soon, however, quotes precious metals rebounded, lost correlation with risky assets. As a result, the price of gold for yesterday rose 0.88% to 1731.97 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, while silver quotations rose 1.56% to 32.292 dollars per ounce.

On Friday, during the Asian trading session, the precious metal traded at a higher, focusing on the dynamics of exchange rates. Positive economic data on industrial production and retail sales in China, indicating that the worlds second largest economy will avoid a "hard landing", also contributed to the growth of prices of metals. Meanwhile, the slowdown in consumer inflation in China has allowed investors to expect a further easing of monetary policy by the Chinese regulator.

However, we believe that the growth of precious metals can slow down by the intended increase of the U.S. currency because of fears about the situation in Greece. The news of a possible postponement of the decision on granting Greece the next tranche of financial assistance by the end of November, the euro zone's debt problems returned to the fore.

Discussions on this issue are likely to be the main topic of the meeting the eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday.

Impact on investor sentiment and the value of the precious metals today can also scheduled economic data from the U.S.. The focus of the market will be the preliminary data for the indicator of confidence from the University of Michigan in November, as well as figures on change in stocks in the warehouses of wholesale trade for September. According to the expectations indicators from overseas are likely to be evidence of some deterioration in the situation and weaken the dollar, and therefore, the precious metals may increase.

However, if, as expected data from the U.S. will go better, and metals can be reduced. The estimated range of the value of gold on Friday could 1720.0 - 1742.0 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, and silver - 31.95 -32.65 dollars per troy ounce.

Mikael Verdyan analyst GC FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 09/11/2012, the stock market: Investors flee the Russian market! Attention to Novotek!

According to the latest data EPFR, withdrawal of international funds investing in Russian securities, continued the fifth week in a row. A week before the November 7 volume outflow of 71 million U.S. dollars. Among the emerging markets - Asian countries favorites. Negative trend continues, this is partly due to the uncertainty in the U.S., where investors are pondering the outcome and yet rely on the "Rally of obligation." This is a testament to reduce appetite for risk.

The situation on the Russian sites reflects environment on global stock markets. Europe is losing between 0.7%. MICEX is reduced by 0.8%, the RTS lost 1.2%. MICEX broke the psychologically important level of 1400 points and now a lot will depend on how quickly the developed markets will recover, and after them, and large developing countries.

News Coverage While major investment ideas in the market is the Power chips amid plans to consolidate the sector and producers of precious metals. Gold adds to the price of up to 1737 dollars per ounce, our forecast until the end of the year is $ 1,750. As a result of 0.6% adds Polyus Gold.

In our opinion, the world price of silver will increase faster than the gold price up to U.S. $ per troy ounce. It can support Polymetal shares, which is already growing at 0.8%.

Of the other major events today publication reporting independent gas producer - company Novotek IFRS for the first nine months. Shares of the most attractive in the sector with the growth of its sales in Russia (in the portfolio of contracts added E.on and Fortum) and the beginning of a major project "Yamal - LNG." The market expects the positive statements.

Dirgin Andrew, Head of Research CC FOREX CLUB Business News Agency, 09.11.2012, Trading ruble hit the U.S. trap!

The Russian currency fell into a trap, and can not break out of the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40. rubles.

The day before, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus totaled 159.9 RF billion U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion more than in the same period last year. In part, this picture has been developed against the backdrop of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports. However, we believe that the increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term.

Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest with the Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also as a consequence, the demand for the Russian currency.

However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. Risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

Dirgin Andrew, Head of Research CC FOREX CLUB Business News Agency, 09.11.2012, Market Exchange and the forecast for the week 12 16 November The U.S. dollar has strengthened its position somewhat, from 5 to 9 November as the results of the presidential elections in the U.S. boosted concern about the problem of "fiscal cliff."

Against this background, investors sold assets related to economic growth, and to direct resources to the dollar and the yen, as traditional currency havens. USDX dollar index gained only 0.3%, but it is a minor change was largely due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen against him.

News Coverage The single European currency has come under pressure again. The EUR / USD broke through the technically important support level of 1.28 and tested the 1.2715 mark. During this period there was no significant macroeconomic published statistics and results of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB and the press conference of his head, Mario Draghi did not bring a market participant no surprises and they were ignored. On traders influenced the overall strengthening of the dollar throughout the market and the continued adverse external background around the eurozone. Toward the close of the week the euro traded against the "American" at the level of 1.2730.


The British pound spent a quiet week. Sterling continues to feel more or less confident against the dollar. Despite the fact that published earlier in the week the index of business optimism from Markit questioned maintaining good economic growth in the fourth quarter, "Briton" while ignoring the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Accordingly, the cross-rate EUR / GBP dropped to around 0.7975.

The Australian dollar has strengthened its position somewhat after the Reserve Bank of Australia surprised investors again left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.25%. The regulator was of the view that its previous decline already have had some positive effect on the economy and chose to take a break.

The Japanese yen was in demand as a defensive asset amid growing concerns related to the "fiscal cliff." At the closing weeks of the USD / JPY again tested support 79.25.

Forecast for the week 12 to 16 November The main events of the week from 12 to 16 November, may have a significant impact on the prospects for the dollar will be the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market USA (Wednesday, November 14, 23:00 GMT), as well as data on consumer price inflation (Thursday November 15, 17:30 GMT ). In his last official statement issued after a meeting of FOMC, regulators have noted some increased level of inflation, and therefore the statistics on price movements may have an impact on the exchange market.

The European currency is under pressure as the dollar strengthened as currency shelter. In addition, the European debt crisis continued to keep investors on their toes, and economic data from the euro area deteriorated from month to month. On Tuesday, November Center for Economic Research ZEW will publish updates on indicators of business optimism in Germany, and if they will again be negative, the euro will continue to decline. We believe that the EUR / USD has a good chance to test 1.2550 support.

Bidders for the British pound will be expected to publish a quarterly report on inflation, which will be held on Wednesday 14 November at 14.30 GMT. At the same time the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and some members of the Monetary Policy Committee will hold a press conference. The situation in the UK economy is very confusing now. Latest GDP figure for the third quarter reflected its strong growth, but business confidence index for the first month of the fourth did not give reason to assume that this trend will be sustained. The British currency until feels confident, but in this situation, the application of the monetary authorities can significantly influence its movement. In terms of technical analysis, in case of further strengthening of the dollar throughout the market and overcome the 1. support, the pair GBP / USD opens the road to a mark 1.5850.

News Coverage Economic Calendar for the Australian dollar in the coming week is empty. From 12 to November, will not be published any data that may have a significant effect on his position.

We believe that the main pair AUD / USD will move depending on the dynamics of the U.S.

currency. On the basis of technical analysis, it may be noted that, to maintain its charge up very important to keep the support of 1.0380. Her breakout may lower quotes in the region 1.03.

In the absence of significant news, USD / JPY has a good chance to continue a downward spiral and can touch support 78.80.

Valery Polkhovsky analyst SC FOREX CLUB http://www.abnews.ru/?p=novosti91&news= News of Kuzbass, 09.11.2012, Precious metals increased, but growth could slow - GC "Forex Club" On Thursday, November 8, at the beginning of the trading session on the world gold price and silver traded almost unchanged, the analyst GC "Forex Club" Michael Verdyan. Prices were kept in narrow ranges due to restrained investment activity in anticipation of the next ECB meeting on interest rates and the traditional press conference, President Mario Draghi.

Lingering concerns over the slow pace of global economic growth, as well as anxiety about the spread of Europe's debt crisis also did not add optimism, thus preventing the growth of precious assets.

However, in early U.S. trading session, the precious metals have lost a part of earlier position against the release of positive macro data on the number of initial claims for unemployment and the U.S. trade deficit. Pessimistic assessment of the state of the European economy by the chairman of the European regulator Draghi also helped improve investor sentiment. Soon, however, quotes precious metals rebounded, lost correlation with risky assets. As a result, the price of gold for yesterday rose 0.88% to 1731.97 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, while silver quotations rose 1.56% to 32.292 dollars per ounce.

On Friday, during the Asian trading session, the precious metal traded at a higher, focusing on the dynamics of exchange rates. Positive economic data on industrial production and retail sales in China, indicating that the worlds second largest economy will avoid a "hard landing", also contributed to the growth of prices of metals. Meanwhile, the slowdown in consumer inflation in China has allowed investors to expect a further easing of monetary policy by the Chinese regulator.

"However, we believe that the rise in precious metals can slow down by the intended increase of the U.S. currency due to concerns about the situation in Greece, - experts predict GC" Forex Club. "- The news of a possible postponement of the decision on granting Greece the next tranche of financial assistance until the end of November, returned to the debt problems of the euro area to the front. Discussions on this issue are likely to be the main topic of the meeting the eurozone finance ministers in Brussels on Monday. " According to M. Verdyan, have an impact on investor sentiment and the value of the precious metals today can also scheduled economic data from the U.S.. The focus of the market will be the preliminary data for the indicator of confidence from the University of Michigan in November, as well as figures on change in stocks in the warehouses of wholesale News Coverage trade for September. According to the expectations indicators from overseas are likely to be evidence of some deterioration in the situation and weaken the dollar, and therefore, the precious metals may increase. However, if, as expected data from the U.S. will go better, and metals can be reduced. The estimated range of the value of gold on Friday could 1720.0 1742.0 U.S. dollars per troy ounce, and silver - 31.95 -32.65 dollars per troy ounce, concludes the analyst GC "Forex Club".

News of Kuzbass, 09.11.2012, Dollar hit the U.S. trap! - GC "Forex Club" The Russian currency fell into a trap and can not escape from the channel 31,50-31, against the U.S. currency - indicates Head of Research Complex "Forex Club" Andrew Dirgin. And like, there are all prerequisites to the ruble to our goal of 29.75, but the sell-off in global stock markets do not give him square his shoulders in full power. Today ruble depreciates by 6 cents to 31.56 to the dollar. Euro adds 5 cents to 40.21 rubles.

"Yesterday, as we expected, the published data on the growth of exports and reduce imports. Thus, according to customs statistics, in the first nine months of 2012 the trade surplus of the Russian Federation was 159,900,000,000 U.S. dollars, up 7.6 billion dollars United States more than in the same period last year. Partly, this picture has been developed against the background of rising prices for petroleum products and reduce food imports.

Nevertheless, we believe that an increase in the trade surplus of the Russian Federation - is one of the key features of the ruble in the medium term. " Other macroeconomic indicators also show the long term growth of the Russian currency.

Thus, the growing volume of domestic debt of that, along with the liberalization of the debt market in Russia, can not only lead to an interest in Russian government bonds by foreign investors, but also, as a consequence, to an increase in demand for the Russian currency, experts predict GC "Forex Club ". However, while the situation on the world stock markets does not allow the ruble to return to the growing trend. According to A. Dirgin, risk aversion due to the lack of ideas in the global stock market after the U.S. election, investors are betting on the "Rally of obligation" and active withdrawal from risk. As a result of increasing rate of "defense" of the dollar to 1.27.

Finance.ua, 09.11.2012, inflation for the year may be lower than expected Rising prices in the remaining two months before the end of the year could be accelerated, but for the year it is unlikely to exceed 1.5%. This opinion was expressed by the expert information and analytical center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Maria Salnikova.

"Due to the fact that the inflation rate in September and October was much lower than expected - 0.1% and 0%, respectively, we have revised our outlook for price growth to 3 3.5% to 1.5%. Lower rates of inflation are associated with weak as price pressures and the economic slowdown in the country against the backdrop of the debt crisis in the euro area ", - said Salnikov.

Rising prices in Ukraine remains low compared with other countries of the CIS. For example, inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year was 5.6%, Kazakhstan - 4.6%, and the trend is accelerating price growth continues. Economic growth rates in these countries are higher than in Ukraine, which confirms the idea definitely related indicators of inflationary economic growth.

News Coverage Recall that according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine core inflation (core CPI) in Ukraine in October 2012 against September was 0.1%, since the beginning of the year (October 2012 to December 2011) - 0.6%.

In NBU point out that such figures are caused in the first place, the stability of the course, and secondly - the very low inflation in trading partners of Ukraine.

Their forecasts for inflation at the end of the year make and other experts. Thus, according to the chief economist at Dragon Capital Elena Belan in the last months of 2012 we should expect higher inflation, with up to 2012 inflation at around 2%.

http://news.finance.ua/ru/ ~ / 1/0/all/2012/11/09/ Belarusian News, 11/9/2012, Belarus: Currency market review for November 5- For the period from 5 to 9 November the Belarusian ruble against the U.S. dollar has fallen to a level at Br20 Br8550. The euro fell to a mark on the Br90 Br10910. Russian ruble weakened Br0, 50 (0.2%), reaching a value of Br271, 50. Trading volume in the currency of the lot on U.S. dollar totaled 250.5 million euros - 86.1 million, RUB - 3515.2 million Since the start of trading by fixing on September 14, 2011 the national currency against the U.S. dollar added Br50, or 0.6%, rose to the level of Br8550. Against the euro, it increased by Br1190 (9,8%). Russia's currency relative to the Belarusian ruble strengthened to Br33, (10.9%). Since the beginning of 2012, he lost against the U.S. dollar Br200 (2,4%). Against the euro, it fell by Br110 (1,02%), but against the Russian ruble lost Br10, 50 (4.0%).

Tensions in the national currency market was asleep. National Bank tightened monetary policy and deficit provokes ruble liquidity in the system, trying to expand the foreign exchange positions of commercial banks. Against this backdrop, the Belarusian ruble stopped in Br8500 dollar. However, the deterioration of the trade balance, which will be observed in the second half of the year will continue to put pressure on the national currency. However, its weakening may be of a very slow character as NBB has all the necessary resources to smooth out fluctuations. Approximation of the rate of the Belarusian ruble weakening observed from July 17, 2012 to October 5, with the forecast for 90 periods ahead gives the mark 8750 plus / minus 100 rubles.

Belarusian ruble exchange rate against the euro is still dependent on the quotes pair USD / BYR traded currency section BCSE and the dynamics of the pair EUR / USD on the world market. The European currency has again come under pressure against the dollar, breaking through the technically important support level of 1.28, and tested the 1.2715 mark. During this period there was no significant macroeconomic published statistics and results of the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB and the press conference of his head, Mario Draghi did not bring a market participant no surprises and they were ignored. On the foreign exchange market participants influenced the overall strengthening of the dollar throughout the market and the continued adverse external background around the eurozone. Toward the close of the week the euro traded against the "American" at the level of 1.2730.

In the currency market of the Russian Federation local ruble is not changed its position, despite the fact that oil prices of Brent North Sea continues to be quoted in the $ 108 per barrel. However, experts believe Forex Club in Belarus, if the "black gold" is not to continue News Coverage declining, the weakening of the Russian currency unlikely to be widespread, and it will continue to fluctuations in the corridor of 31-33 rubles per dollar.

http://naviny.by/rubrics/finance/2012/11/09/ic_news_114_405145/ Columnist, 11/09/2012, Judge: inflation, but below forecast Inflation by the end of the year may be much lower than previously forecast. About this "columnist" said the expert information and analytical center Forex club in Ukraine Maria Salnikova.

"The rise in prices in November and December can be accelerated, but the year is unlikely to exceed 1 and 5%. Because inflation in September and October was much lower than expected, 0.1% and 0%, we have revised forecast growth rates from 3-3.5% to 1.5%. Lower inflation rates have been associated with weak as pricing pressure and a slowdown in the country Rostand amid the debt crisis in the euro area ", - said Salnikov.

He adds that the rise in Ukraine as compared with price increases in other CIS countries is quite low.

"In Russia, inflation since the beginning of the year was 5, and 6%, in Kazakhstan - 4, 6%, and it continues," - says the expert.

The indicators of economic growth in these countries is much higher, according to Salnikova than in Ukraine, which confirms the thesis of some indicators of inflation depending on the growth of the economy.

As previously predicted by experts, the inflation rate to the end of the year would be 3%.

UNIAN, 09.11.2012, inflation in 2012 is unlikely to exceed 1.5% Inflation in 2012 is unlikely to exceed 1.5%, a commentary prepared by analysts of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB in Ukraine.

Hryvnia depreciated until no According to analysts, in the remaining two months before the end of the year, inflation may accelerate, but for the year will still be quite low.

"Due to the fact that the inflation rate in September and October were much lower than expected - 0.1% and 0%, respectively, we have revised our forecast for price growth to 3 3.5% to 1.5%. Lower rates of inflation are associated with weak as price pressures and the economic slowdown in the country against the backdrop of the debt crisis in the euro zone, "- said the expert center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Maria Salnikova.

Analysts center point to the fact that the rise in Ukraine remains low compared with other countries of the CIS. For example, inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year was 5.6%, Kazakhstan - 4.6%, and the trend is accelerating price growth remains.

In the FOREX CLUB point out that the economic growth in these countries is also higher than in Ukraine, which confirms the thesis of some indicators of inflation depending on the growth of the economy.

News Coverage As UNIAN reported earlier, in Ukraine in October 2012 compared with September 2012, consumer prices have not changed (inflation - 0%), as prices have not changed, and against October 2011.

Since the beginning of 2012 (October 2012 to December 2011), 0.3% deflation.

In October 2011, against September 2011 as inflation was 0%, with the same month of 2010, prices rose by 5.4% in October 2011 against December 2010 price increase was 4.2%.

UNIAN. State Budget of Ukraine for 2012 is calculated on the basis of the government's inflation forecast to 7.9%.

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved the forecast of inflation in Ukraine from 8.5% to 7.9% this year (December to December), and later reported on the revision of the forecast of 7%. Inflation in 2013 is expected to reach 5.9%.

In mid-July, the World Bank (WB) has lowered the inflation forecast for 2012 to 6.1% from December's 9.4% forecast. In 2013, the World Bank expects inflation in Ukraine at the level of 9.5% (7.4%), in 2014 - 5.9% (7.1%).

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts inflation in Ukraine in 2012 at 1.5%.

According to forecasts of Standard & Poor's, the inflation in Ukraine in 2012 will be 6%.

http://www.unian.net/news/534769-inflyatsiya-v-2012-godu-vryad-li-prevyisit-15.html Potok.UA, 09.11.2012, inflation for the year may be lower than expected Rising prices in the remaining two months before the end of the year could be accelerated, but for the year it is unlikely to exceed 1.5%.

"Due to the fact that the inflation rate in September and October was much lower than expected - 0.1% and 0%, respectively, we have revised our outlook for price growth to 3 3.5% to 1.5%. Lower rates of inflation are associated with weak as price pressures and the economic slowdown in the country against the backdrop of the debt crisis in the euro zone, "- said Maria Salnikova, expert information and analytical center FOREX CLUB in Ukraine.

Rising prices in Ukraine remains low compared with other countries of the CIS. For example, inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year was 5.6%, Kazakhstan - 4.6%, and the trend is accelerating price growth continues. Economic growth rates in these countries are higher than in Ukraine, which confirms the idea definitely related indicators of inflationary economic growth.

Business News, 9/11/2012, The euro may strengthen against the dollar - a view In the absence of relevant information on the market single currency may go up to $ 1. At today's auction, the euro and the pound may recover up to $ 1.28 and $ 1.604, respectively. Any sensitive information, except Chinese macroeconomic, market is not received. This is stated in the prediction of Forex Club in Ukraine.

News Coverage According to analysts, the yen may also strengthen on Chinese data. If the figures confirm that China's economy has moved into a phase of stabilization after a brief recession, we can expect a rollback USD / JPY at 79.80 area.

Yesterday the sale of the stock markets and the negative tone asked the foreign exchange market. Even the favorable outcome of a vote on a package of austerity measures in Greece is not able to restore the euro. EUR / USD pair opened the day at 1.2766 reached 1.2716 day low, and completed trades around 1.2750. The further fall of the euro has kept reporting that the head of the governing board of the European Central Bank (ECB) is generally satisfied with the monetary policy of the regulator. This means that additional mitigation while not expected.



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