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«News Coverage Ежедневный отчет о публикациях Упоминания FOREX CLUB в российских СМИ Упоминания FOREX CLUB в англоязычных СМИ ...»

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The U.S. dollar cut off two pennies U.S. Dollar to Ukraine in early August, continued to grow, and with a sharp rise in prices in the cash market, which is strikingly different from the sluggish dynamics of "Cash" in July. At the same time, the National Bank of Ukraine on the interbank market did not come out, the prerequisites for the dollar rush home and do not.

On Monday, July 30 on the interbank U.S. dollar traded in a narrow range 8,1010-8, UAH. per unit, on Tuesday, July 31 rose slightly in the purchase (up to 8.1020 UAH.) and significantly - on sale (up to 8.1070 UAH.). Wednesday 1 August, has become a frustrating day on the world market at the Ukrainian interbank U.S. dollar was marked by significant growth in prices for the U.S. dollar (USD 8,1125-8,1165.). These figures are weekly maximums: having played the uncertainty after the meetings the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, the bidders on the world market did not see the prerequisites for the further promotion of the dollar hype, on Thursday August 2nd U.S. dollar on the decline (8,1105 8,1150 UAH.) and Friday stabilized within 8,1100-8,1140 UAH. "Mining" the U.S. dollar on the interbank market last week ranged from 1 to 1.5 kopecks.

On the cash market the U.S. dollar rose by 2 pennies. On Monday, July 30, he traded in a range 8,0810-8,1160 UAH., But on Tuesday, July 31 began a sharp rise in prices to 8,0840 8,1220 UAH., Which may be due to the height of tourist season, so and with the heat wave News Coverage and the views of the crop. On Wednesday, August 1, when there was an increase in the interbank U.S. dollar in the cash market, the currency continued to appreciate (8,0920 8,1240 UAH.) On Thursday August 2 cash U.S. dollar reached 8,0970-8,1290 UAH., and on Friday August 3 closed the week at five-day highs (8,0990-8,1320 UAH.).

The euro fell due to poor prospects In contrast to the world market in Ukraine, the euro interest is reduced, and in this sense the beginning of August is not much different from the last week of July. Euro on the interbank market remained stable, although there were sharp "jerks" up and down, respectively, on Tuesday, July 31 and Wednesday August 1. At the end of trading on Monday July 31, gained a foothold in the range of USD 9,9520-9,960., Tuesday, July 31 Euros collapsed to 9,9268-9,9332 UAH. per unit, and these figures are minima of the week. It is likely, because the euro has responded to the ratification of the Agreement on an FTA with the CIS and the sinking euro on the world market. On Wednesday, July 1 euro recovered to 9,9821-9,9910 UAH., These figures were highs for the week. Sure, the Ukrainian traders to win back the results of the meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve. On Thursday, August 2 began settling in the Ukrainian Interbank euro to 9,9601-9,9697 UAH., Culminating in the fixation of the euro on Friday, the mean values (9,9563-9,9652 UAH.).

On the cash market for the euro was a distinct trend - the currency had fallen below the psychological mark of 10 USD. per unit, the dynamics of quotations was to illustrate the mood of the masses about the prospects of the euro. On Monday, July 30 Euros still held over 10 hrn. at least in the sale of (9.8550 - 10.0300 UAH.), on Tuesday, July 31, he fell in the purchase and sale (9,8400-10,0130 UAH.) on Wednesday, August 1, predictably went up to the weekly maxima ( 9,8810-10,0370 UAH.), but on Thursday, August 2 sank to 9,8580 10,0140 UAH. On Friday, August 3 euro has fallen to 9.8080 UAH week lows. in the purchase and, interestingly, less than 10 USD. Sales (USD 9.9780)..

The Russian ruble remained stable The inclusion of the Russian ruble in gold reserves of NBU, as well as the ratification of the Agreement on an FTA with the CIS is practically no effect on the quotes of the ruble at the Ukrainian interbank market. So, on Monday, July 30 at the Ukrainian interbank ruble was trading in the range 0,2525-0,2529 UAH. per unit, on Tuesday, July 31 sank to 0,2513-0, UAH. and consistently continued to fall in price on Wednesday August 1 (0,2505-0, UAH.) on Thursday August 2 (0,2503-0,2507 UAH.) and on Friday August 3-week lows reached (0,2502-0, 2506 hrn.).

On the cash market the ruble fell from 30 July to 3 August 0,2428-0,2520 UAH. to 0,2418 0,2497 UAH. Subsidence of the ruble was as consistent as in the interbank market. Most likely, the downward trend of the ruble in Ukraine after the fall due to the growth of the ruble against the U.S. dollar on the Russian exchange market pressure to strengthen the U.S.

dollar on the world market in the first half of the week and multidirectional movement of oil prices.

The U.S. dollar and euro in Ukraine fall into hibernation Next week is expected to calm, will focus on assessments of allegations the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB, as well as changes in government bond yields of the eurozone countries. Therefore, in the Ukraine, quotes of the three major currencies will not undergo News Coverage significant changes. This view comments in an exclusive agency "OUR PRODUCT" stated the head of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB Ukraine Mykola Ivchenko.

According to him, if we talk about the U.S. dollar, the "no preconditions to the sharp volatility of U.S. dollar." As suggested by the expert, the average selling price of U.S. dollar cash in Ukraine over the next five trading days will vary between 8,130-8,135 USD. per unit.

On the interbank market a range of price fluctuations on the U.S. dollar is unlikely to go beyond the limits of 1-1.5 cop.

In the absence of important news and developments for the euro area, "we assume the low volatility of European currencies," said Mykola Ivchenko. According to him, unless some unexpected factors intervene, the range of price fluctuations of cash euro sales in Ukraine will be 9.73 - 10.14 UAH.

According to the expert, the price of the Russian ruble in the Ukrainian currency market will depend on the volatility of U.S. dollar on the world market and possible steps to strengthen the ECB's euro, which will support the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar, as well as against the hryvnia. Nevertheless, the ruble is unlikely to grow significantly, the expected range of price fluctuations of the ruble cash sales in Ukraine will be 0.249 - 0.253 UAH.

Recall, as previously reported IA "Our Products", according to Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the FTA agreement with CIS benefit Ukraine.

http://ianp.com.ua/ru/news/company/read/ Ministry of Industry, 06.08.2012, Shadow Dragon China allocates two multibillion-dollar loan Ukraine, which will develop the agricultural sector and to reduce energy dependence on Russia. Unlike loans from the West, Chinese money is cheaper and "longer". But instead of Kiev actually opens doors to Beijing to domestic markets, and within a few years, our country could fall into the sphere of influence of China.

Appointment of the first loan ($ 3 billion) - the development of agriculture, the second (3. billion dollars) - Translation of domestic power plants to rising in price of natural gas for coal.

So, money is supposed perevsti China on hydrocarbon fuel thermal power plants, and therefore build a gasification plant for lignite and coal.

However, experts remind us that Beijing does not give loans, "just because". For example, in the case of "agricultural" loan Ukrainian party is obliged to use Chinese equipment, seeds and fertilizers. The head of the Verkhovna Rada of the subcommittee on foreign relations, Igor Hryniv adds, China is a special resolution under which such loans are, if their development using the Chinese workers. Thus, except for equipment and materials, to attract money from the Middle Kingdom could be the reason for the appearance of our Chinese workforce. But in general - open the doors to the general economic expansion of China in Ukraine.

Shades of expansion As you know, China is actively expanding foreign trade in almost all major regions of the planet, which he calls "the program to go beyond the line." The country is the largest holder of U.S. government debt, holding U.S. bonds by 1.1 trillion dollars As for Europe, recently, News Coverage Prime Minister Wen Jiabao has declared its readiness to allocate European countries targeted credit line to $ 10 billion is clear that under severe financial resources in the European Union such aid for more than relevant. Emphasis on Celestial makes Eastern and Southern Europe, aiming for 2015 to increase trade volume with 100 billion dollars V.Tszyabao said, "We understand the concerns of the Eastern European countries associated with the trade imbalances, and increase imports from these countries". Large-scale trade agreement signed last year and with the UK - for 1 billion pounds ($ 1.6 billion). Moreover, at the end of 2011 we know of attempts to contact the European Central Bank of Beijing's anti crisis loan of up to $ 100 billion China is actively working within the BRICS - obedineniya leading emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) In the "Third World" the Chinese move has been particularly active, even aggressive - not only in Asia but also in Africa and Latin America. In many African countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Zambia, Sudan, South Sudan, etc.) are already working a major investment from China, and China is trying to fight for power with the help of pro-China political forces (as in the recent politkrizise in Niger). Rapidly expanding influence in the former countries of socialist orientation - Angola, Mozambique, Benin, Cape Verde, etc. Small wonder that in July, before the next Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Foreign Minister of Zambia Lou Binda said African countries should work together to strengthen cooperation with Beijing.

According to the Ministry of Commerce of the Middle Kingdom, in 2010 the volume of its trade with African countries amounted to 126.9 billion dollars, a year later - already $ billion In addition, an annual African countries receive 1-2 billion dollars of direct assistance.

And just in July, President Hu Jintao pledged to Africa in the $ 20 billion in new loans over the next three years.

And China's investment in Africa in 2010 they reached $ 50 billion, according to a constant Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). An economist and political analyst Vitaly Kulik said that the priorities of African capital of Beijing - oil and minerals. In this case, the principle of "raw materials in exchange for infrastructure," although in some cases, infrastructure projects are implemented separately from the commodity. "For example, in Zambia, a liberal investment climate and relatively low internal competition for more than 200 Chinese companies operate in the field of light industry, construction, retail trade - continues the analyst. - More and more investments are made in the IT field: for example, company Huawei Technologies provides mobile communication Kenya, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and ZTE has invested $ 400 million in the modernization of television and telephone systems of some countries. " Finally, this summer V.Tszyabao suggested Latin America line of credit for $ 10 billion to support infrastructure projects. And as a special fund for industrial development. Celestial has already signed an agreement with Brazil on currency swap (mutual credit) for $ billion, as previously with Argentina. V.Tszyabao calls reasonable and free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market, comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. In the next five years, China plans to increase annual trade with the region up to 400 billion dollars In this regard, the domestic ex-Minister of Economy Vladimir Lanovoy remembers that BRICS countries to China Development Bank plans to lend in their local currency - yuan. And that means going to the yuan's global financial market. "It is important that China is ready to allocate funds to foreign countries for the long term (15 years or more) and a vacation to pay interest. So, Kiev recent credits offered by 5.5-6% per annum for up to 10 years" - sums up a specialist.

News Coverage Yuan for the republic Recall, too, Kyiv develops in the calculation of the yuan with Chinese partners. At the end of 2011 it became known about the plans of the National Bank of portions of the yuan in payment for imports from the Middle Kingdom. Yuan enter the Ukrainian market, inter alia, through correspondent agreements between the Central Bank of China and Ukreximbank.

And in June, Ukraine, like several other countries, has signed an agreement with Beijing on the swap at 2.36 billion dollars, which allows economic entities of both states 3 years to use national currencies in foreign trade operations, and thereby simplify the calculations.

The head of information-analytical center "Forex Club in Ukraine," Mykola Ivchenko believes that NBU thus diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in terms of instability of the international economy and the debt crisis in the eurozone. "Against this background, the yuan as one of the most stable currencies in the world is not out of place in the gold reserves of Ukraine, allowing you to reduce the dependence on the dollar and the euro", said the financier. Not surprisingly, at the end of 2011 the head of the IMF in Ukraine Max Alier negatively assessed "yuanevy" project, saying that "it may raise the question about the quality of reserves."

The head of the National Bank Sergei Arbuzov recently noted: "At a meeting of heads of two stipulated figure of $ 10 billion, to which we must go to the trade (in 2011 8.5 billion dollars Ed.). This is the real level, especially with convenient mechanisms for payments in national currencies. Our exporters in this case will avoid some of the risks associated with exchange rates. " Indeed, over 5 months of this year, trade with China reached nearly $ 3.5 billion, up 18% more than in January-May 2011. But let's not forget that the balance of bilateral trade consistently negative: imports from China growing much faster than exports.

Experts emphasize: in itself a currency swap may lead to an increase in mutual trade is not more than 5-10%, and our country can get a bonus in the form of additional investment. But a more effective development co-operation would be direct access to banks of the Middle Kingdom to the Ukrainian financial markets - with trade finance services, promissory note operations and financing of projects, I'm sure the manager of investment funds of the company "Kinto" Nicholas soft.

The reverse side of this approach is the inclusion of Ukraine in the number of the objectives of economic expansion, Beijing. She later converted into political influence and, as is already happening in developing countries, and in the U.S. who have to reckon with the interests of China as its main foreign creditor. "That does not mean that Washington is losing its Chinese interests. On the contrary, Americans are now trying to increase its influence (including the military presence) in the same Asia-Pacific region. But to reckon with China still have. This is reflected in the distribution interests in key markets (for example - South-East Asia, Africa).

In the future, the same can be expected in our country, "- says V.Kulik.

In this context, we recall that the 2 "July" credit - not the first in domestic practice, and not even the first in the energy sector. Previously, Kiev has already attracted 1.03 billion dollars of Chinese funds for technical re-equipment of coal mines, and in 2012 as a pilot project planned reconstruction of the mine to them. Melnikov. In late 2011, Beijing proposed to replace the IMF funds with their money, because the Ukrainian leadership is not yet able to get the next tranche of the Fund.

News Coverage Behind the scenes co-operation Economists believe that this activity the Middle Kingdom in Ukraine jeopardize the interests of Russia in this country. For example, transfer to coal fuel thermal power plants can save billion cubic meters. m / year of natural gas despite the fact that in 2011 the domestic market imported 45 billion cubic meters. m And in the future - the development of domestic production, energy approaches and reduce the annual consumption of up to 38-40 billion cubic meters. m - the entire gas imports could be reduced to 10 billion cubic meters. m admits V.Lanovoy. In principle, this decrease dependence on Russia can play an important role China. Especially considering that the actual alignment of political forces in Eurasia, Moscow can not effectively prevent the expansion of China, even in their own territory, underlines V.Kulik. No wonder the deputy director of the Center for Shanghai Cooperation Organization Lifan Lee recently said, the Russian leader Vladimir Putin should think about inviting Beijing to the Eurasian Union - Kremlin-cherished project of revival influence in the CIS.

I.Gryniv adds: Celestial gradually increases the effect of the post-Soviet space, ranging from the geographically close to Central Asia, and ending with all three Slavic republics. "Yes, it is a competition with the Russians, in which the use of all instruments, including loans. And this struggle Moscow does not win," - says the analyst.

As the Chinese expansionists interested in a particular Ukrainian economy? V.Lanovoy reduces primary interest to the two complex motivations: first - access to a rich resource and industrial base with a skilled labor force, the second - at the same time strengthening the influence of the CIS and the EU. China can come close to these major markets, creating or buying in Ukraine specialized production. It is known that the major disadvantage is the high cost of domestic gas industrial plants, but if this problem could be attenuated by the transfer of coal, then China will get a convenient platform for further promotion of the market across Europe from Britain to the Urals. "To illustrate the effectiveness of the reserve of the Ukrainian economy give an example of steel billets, the cost of which in our country - one of the lowest in the world, despite the factor of gas," - said V.Kulik.

Experts remind us that in the last 5-7 years, Ukraine has emerged a joint venture with Chinese companies, reflecting the general trend of economic expansion, Beijing. Thus, in 2005 it was announced refractory joint venture companies "Keramet" and Puyang, designed for the production of refractories in the Donbass Celestial technology. Another example - a project joint venture for the processing of manganese ores from two major prospective domestic deposits Velikotokmakskogo (Zaporizhia region). And Feodor (Kherson region)., With the possible construction of a new ferroalloy plant. Also recall that in the years 2008 10 as a candidate for the purchase of Mariupol Ilyich considered MC China. A few years ago was organized by the Ukrainian and build popular models of Chinese cars. And according to President of the Ukrainian think tank Okhrimenko Alexander, from the banks of China already has plans to buy financial institutions in Ukraine. What time is precisely correlated with the evolution of large-scale loans.

In the spring, but new projects, "a large loan," the domestic Ministry of Energy and Mines signed an agreement with a group of China Coal Technology & Engineering Framework Agreement for the extraction of lignite in the Kirovograd region, which provides for the restoration of Constantine the cut and construction of power plants close to him.

News Coverage In the area of infrastructure is not the first time worked out plans for the joint construction and reconstruction of roads, bridges, ports. For example, China Bank of Development and Fan Zheng corporation interested in participating in the construction of modern highways Lugansk - Chop. According A.Ohrimenko if Beijing is serious, "comes" in the country, then, of course, interested in the development of its infrastructure.

In general, experts identify the main areas of interest are the Middle Kingdom in Ukraine:

industrial raw materials, the very industry, infrastructure, finance and agriculture. Actually, this list covers almost the entire national economy. Hence, the development of Chinese expansion Ukraine will be included in the orbit of the real influence of China, no matter what mode of free trade and association.

http://minprom.ua/articles/100683.html Finmarket, 06.08.2012, GK "FOREX CLUB" Analytical review and forecast of the FOREX market * Analytical review of the FOREX market for Friday, August 3, 2012 * Last week was full of key events, so it is not surprising that the major currency pairs are very volatile. The results of the FOMC meeting and the ECB had a significant impact on the players and the numbers on the labor market in the U.S. in July were the culmination of a decent working five days. For the most part, the outcome of each event coincided with forecasts, but there were surprises that prepared the market itself. For example, a sudden sharp appreciation of risky assets on the news about the rest unchanged rate of the European Central Bank has left the majority of traders are at a loss.

So, opening the week at 1,2301, EUR / USD during the first three days was kept under 80 point range 1,2240-1,2320, and then came under pressure at idle FOMC, having gone to the area of 1.2220. On Thursday, when it became known that the rate remained the same, the European currency has pulled in a weekly maximum of 1.2411, but the comments Draghi put everything in its place - has been achieved at least a week at 1.2133. The pressure on the euro has been increasing again after the sudden good data on the labor market in the U.S. in July. Later in the afternoon on Friday, EUR / USD tried to consolidate above 1.2300.

GBP / USD pair for the entire week was in a downtrend, is gradually breaking through support for further assistance. She opened the week at 1.5735 and gradually broke through the intermediate support 1.5670 and 1.56, came under pressure after the announcement of the decision FOMC. However, at the close of the sterling and again lost his position closer to the end of the week, trying to consolidate above 1.5550, but not very successfully.

USD / JPY behaved more cautiously in the week, adhering to a range 77,95-78,50 and ignoring the events in Europe. The only thing that made an impression on the bidders, so the decision to abstain from the FOMC further stimulate the economy in the near future. At this news the price reached a week high of 78.52, entrenched in an hour for 50 points.

The AUD / USD this week had behaved cautiously, keeping the range 1.0440 - 1.0540.

Positive news from China and Australia could not convince her to continue to strengthen the area of 1,0600. However, the weekly maximum of 1.0577 yet been made on the solution at the rate of the ECB. On the positive data from the U.S. Japanese currency has responded by a sharp weakening, losing about 50 basis points.

News Coverage * Forecast for week 6 - August 10, 2012 * In the coming week is not scheduled to release significant macroeconomic statistics that could have a material effect on the position of the U.S. currency. Market participants will digest data on the index of business optimism and the labor market of the United States. The results of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, published on 31 July, the dollar strengthened somewhat, since monetary policy committee has not made significant changes to the official final statement and the likelihood of the announcement of the implementation of the third round of quantitative easing in the next meeting is currently estimated at a much lower than the previous week.

The EUR / USD also has a good chance to spend quite a quiet week, which is not scheduled to release significant macroeconomic statistics or important events. However, in light of heightened after July 31 of the U.S. dollar, as well as the absence of widely expected following a meeting of the ECB statements on the intervention of governments in the bond markets of Spain and Italy, the European currency may continue to decline in the annual minimum area of 1.2040. The only factor that can support the euro, we see the increase in appetite for risky assets, which can be formed after the release of good data on the labor market in the U.S. in July.

Bidders for the GBP / USD pair will expect the data on the volume of industrial production in July (August 7, 1230 Moscow time) and the traditional quarterly report of the Bank of England (August 8, 1230 Moscow time). Nevertheless, the pound will continue to correlate with the euro and in case of resumption of the downtrend in EUR / USD pair to the motion for him to be 1.5390.

Australian dollar continues to receive support from macroeconomic statistics and feels very confident. However, if the dollar starts to strengthen its position in the market around the pair AUD / USD will be very difficult to continue an established uptrend and it can be corrected. In this case, it will gradually become attractive for long positions. Especially in the area of support 1.0300. For a pair NZD / USD, traditionally closely linked to the AUD / USD, the same level may be 0.7990. In any case, according to our estimates, and "ausi" and "Kiwi" is not promising for the sales, and much more interesting to search for opportunities to purchase a small "foot".

The Japanese yen has suspended its movement towards 76.00 against the dollar as the parties are afraid of intervention by the regulator. On the night of the 8th to the 9th August the Bank of Japan will announce the results of the next meeting. We do not expect any sign of statements, but admit the possibility of indirect intervention to weaken the yen. At current levels of USD / JPY pair has a certain interest for the discovery of long-term long positions with stops below the annual minimum.

* Alain Afanasyev, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB * http://www.finmarket.ru/z/comments/view.asp?id=3008332&rid= Deyta.ru, 08/06/2012, Super Mario unleashed euros President of the ECB has provoked a wave of selling News Coverage Unlike his predecessor, former President of the ECB Mr. Trichet, Mario Draghi has a distinct charisma and extremely strong influence on the currency markets, in particular the behavior of the euro.

According to an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB Voblikov Dmitry, chairman of the ECB has provoked a wave of selling by market participants.

"On the currency markets still reeling from the effects of fiery speeches Draghi spoken to them last week from London, which resulted in, the euro came into active movement against the U.S. dollar yesterday as Mario once again set to work and created quite a buzz around the strong euro / dollar. Euro has tested the 1.24 mark, as immediately fell to 1.21.

The last time an almost "magical" effect on the behavior of the currency helped the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. But, even despite the best efforts of Draghi, and failed to convince market participants not to take short positions on the euro. Stating that the euro will exist, and it is irreversible, the chairman of the ECB is not supported, but instead provoked a wave of selling by market participants ", - said Dmitry Voblikov.

There is little doubt that the euro as the currency will continue to exist, but the question is:

how much will it cost, the currency in case of the euro-zone countries will have to leave it, continues to cause panic on the stock exchange and the triggering cause such movement.

Experts predict GC FOREX CLUB, from a technical point of view, we should expect a downward movement to 1.2150 and prefer to sell from 1.2310. Dmitry Voblikov warned that profits in the past does not mean profitability in the future. All predictions are for informational purposes and does not guarantee a result.

http://www.deita.ru/economy/v-rossii_06.08.2012_817829_super-mario-obrushil-evro.html Siberian News Agency, 04.08.2012, MACROECONOMICS: global industry plunges into recession, the global PMI index fell again, - Maria Salnikov, FOREX CLUB In July, the index of global business activity, calculated by the bank JPMorgan, QM 48.4% versus 49.1% in June. This is the lowest since June 2009. Reducing this figure continues to February this year, and he was the second consecutive month below the bordering recession level of 50%. The main cause of deterioration in global economic activity in July, is a debt crisis in Europe, while the figures the U.S., Brazil and most Asian countries were, at best, weak.

Indeed, there has been a strong decline in the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) in the eurozone and the UK. Thus, the indicator in the euro area in July fell to 44.1%, while in the UK - up to 45.4%. Four other European countries recorded a drop in production in July.

In the U.S., the PMI index is below 50% for the second consecutive month. In Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, the fall in production has accelerated. At the same time, the situation improved somewhat in this sector in Brazil and China.

The most striking indicators of increased production in July were the following countries:

Canada, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Mexico, Russia and South Africa.

News Coverage The fall in the global industry and a decrease due to the number of new orders. This figure falls the second consecutive month and now stands at 47.2%. The volume of international trade have fallen to the level of April 2009.

The index of global employment growth was also below 50% the first time since November 2009 - In July the figure was 49.5%. Unemployment in the euro area last month was 11.2%, which is the highest value since 1995. Creating new jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell to lows over the past two and a half years. Also in July, fell sharply the number of hired personnel in China - at least since March 2009. In Japan, the UK and India, the number of employed non-farm payrolls rose only slightly. Substantial employment growth in July were noted only Canada and Mexico. Given that global demand remains weak and is likely to further decline in industrial production, it is likely that global unemployment in coming months will increase.

It should be noted that in July the second month in a row there was a reduction of price pressure. The corresponding index was 44.5% versus 44.8% in June. In most countries, to reduce production costs. Exceptions were Denmark, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia.

Reporting on Global PMI index for July shows a drop in demand and decline in employment on the background of the debt crisis in the euro area and slowing global economy. Current spending cuts provide some support for production, but this is not enough for the growth of the global industry in the fall in global demand. Against the background of reluctance to the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB to start the third program of quantitative easing, the economy (QE3 and LTRO), the global industry will continue to decline, and global index PMI remain below 50%.

http://sia.ru/index.php?id=245996§ion=409&action=show_news Siberian News Agency, 04.08.2012, WORLD MARKETS: The markets traded in different directions after the meeting of the ECB - analytical department FOREX CLUB Global stock indexes moved in different directions after the ECB meeting. We estimate the market for a moderately optimistic and expect a slight increase.

The dynamics of the global stock indicators is ambiguous. ECB meeting and subsequent comments were unable to significantly alter the balance of power in equity markets, although it contributed to a slight increase. As expected, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in turn, announced no plans of action that investors could evaluate positively. However, he noted that in the coming weeks an action plan aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for Spain and Italy will be developed. In general, investors, although it had expected the ECB to more specific statements, comments appreciated moderately optimistic.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock indices on the basis of trading on Thursday showed a negative trend. Index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to 12,878.88 points, the S & P 500 lost about the same (0.74%), reaching in 1365 an item while the NASDAQ fell by only 0.36% to the level of 2909.77 points.

Also showed negative dynamics Asian stock indicators. So the Japanese Nikkei index fell by 1.13% to 8555.11 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng - all at 0,! 2% to 19,666.18 points. At News Coverage the same time, the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index) rose by 1.02%, reaching the level of 2132.8 points.

The Russian stock indicators also showed growth. The ruble on the MICEX index rose 0.83% to 1408.65 points, while the RTS dollar - 1.55% to 1376.26 points. Among the top gainers on the Russian market stood out paper steel companies. The lowest growth was demonstrated by paper engineering and telecommunications sectors.

It also showed a positive trend and European stock indicators. The British FTSE index rose 1.52% to 5748.5 points, the French CAC - by 2.71% to reach 3320.19 points, while the German DAX - by 2.49% to reach 6770.5 points.

Positive stock market is supported by the data rather optimistic labor market in the United States. Although the unemployment rate and was slightly higher than expected, yet he was in the predicted range. The number of jobs in the nonfarm sector of the U.S. economy was well above the consensus forecast of the median value while also hitting the projected range.

Futures on the Dow Jones index traded in positive territory. Show similar dynamics in the Asian futures indexes. It speaks about the positive mood of investors.

Against this background, we expect a positive opening of trading in the U.S. on Friday, although it does not exclude the sales towards the end of the trading session.

On Monday, we also expect the positive trend in global markets. There were no significant statistical data on Monday will not be published, so, in our opinion, the auction will take place with minimal volatility.

http://sia.ru/index.php?id=245997§ion=409&action=show_news Siberian News Agency, 04.08.2012, OIL: Speculators continue to look upward - Spartak Sobolev, FOREX CLUB On the world oil market on Thursday, August 2, futures quotes are not able to develop an upward rally, becoming the "victim" antiriskovannyh investor sentiment. A barrel of Light Sweet on an urgent Mercantile Exchange NYMEX fell by $ 1.6 to $ 87.27 mark. Price of Brent crude on the ICE electronic Mercantile Exchange closed at $ 0.02 a symbolic red, reaching $ 105.83 a barrel.

According to our observations, the main pressure on the quotes of "black gold" have had the outcome of the ECB meeting, suddenly disappointed investors. In the first half of the trading session, the players bought back contracts with the levels of September 88,70 $ Light, 106 $ Brent, waiting for the optimistic statements from the head of European bank Mario Draghi. The regulator has kept interest rates at 0.75%, which contributed to the growth of the euro in FOREX, and enhance the dynamics of bovine oil contracts. However, during the press conference, Draghi investors waited for a nasty surprise. Chairman of the Board of the ECB significantly softened the tone of the issue of exit from the debt crisis, saying the unwillingness alone to pour liquidity into the European financial system. The reaction of speculators in these comments was unequivocal: the players rushed to sell risky assets by transferring funds into the dollar as the currency of "safe haven". Futures Light Sweet turned to session highs $ 89.60, after which, weak data on U.S. manufacturing orders News Coverage (Factory orders fell in June from 0.5% to -0.5%) dropped the U.S. benchmark grade to the lows of the day $ 86.92. In turn, North Sea Brent confined to the lower support level of $ 105, where the continued interest in buying due to the presence of geopolitical factors helped to eliminate most of the quotations of the losses.

On Friday, August 3, intense one-week session of "close" the July report on U.S.

employment. According to the consensus forecast of analysts, the world's largest economy will create 100 thousand new jobs in the nonfarm sector. If actual data to find significant differences, the price of oil will be fresh catalyst to growth.

According to our estimates, despite the negative reaction of investors to comments Draghi, oil prices remain the chances for resuming an upward trend. Quotes Light Sweet traded above $ 86.80 Technical support, which allows to calculate the increase to a level of $ 91.

Brent in the current situation has great potential for recovery in the case of a breakthrough level of $ 107 "bull train" will go to the next stop $ 109.

http://sia.ru/index.php?id=245992§ion=409&action=show_news Finmarket, 03.08.2012, GK "FOREX CLUB" Analytical review and forecast of the FOREX market * FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: Euro-Dollar recovers before the weekend * * Review * After the ups and downs of a couple of Thursday's on Friday restored. Prices on the level of resistance close to 1.2166 1.2260. In part this is due to the closure of the dynamics of short positions on the euro. Pair received little support on the part of the data on business activity.

The composite PMI index rose to 46.5 in July, against 46.4 a month earlier, but is still below 50, which separates the increased activity of its recession. But there is still data on the U.S.

labor market, which necessarily will make adjustments to the dynamics. Employment growth may support the dollar and in this case the possible return of the price of 1.2200 and 1.2160. But these figures may also cause increased interest in risk. Then the pair rush to resistance 1.2360.

* Forecast * The beginning of the week does not characterize outstanding. An interesting report has been scheduled. Most likely, the market will reconsider the decision of central banks and the recent U.S. data. It is possible that the market return to bearish sentiment on the euro and the price will drop back to 1.2130 support and further to 1.2100. The basic range of motion of the Euro-dollar is likely to be limited to the levels of 1.2130 - 1.2360, provided that the new catalysts does not appear in the form of statements by officials or downgrades.

* Irina Rogov, an analyst at GK ** FOREX ** CLUB * http://www.finmarket.ru/z/comments/view.asp?id=3007634&rid= Finmarket, 03.08.2012, GK "FOREX CLUB" Analytical review and forecast of the FOREX market News Coverage * Market Rates, July 30 - August 3, * Last week was full of key events, so it is not surprising that the major currency pairs are very volatile. The results of the ECB meeting FOMCi had a significant impact on the players and the numbers on the labor market in the U.S. in July were the culmination of a decent working five days. For the most part, the outcome of each event coincided with forecasts, but there were surprises that prepared the market itself. For example, a sudden sharp appreciation of risky assets on the news about the rest unchanged rate of the European Central Bank has left the majority of traders are at a loss.

So, opening the week at 1,2301, EUR / USDv during the first three days was kept under 80 point range 1,2240-1,2320, and then came under pressure at idle FOMC, having gone to the area of 1.2220. On Thursday, when it became known that the rate remained the same, the European currency has pulled in a weekly maximum of 1.2411, but the comments Draghi put everything in its place - has been achieved at least a week at 1.2133. The pressure on the euro has been increasing again after the sudden good data on the labor market in the U.S. in July. Later in the afternoon on Friday, EUR / USDpytalsya to consolidate above 1.2300.

The GBP / USDv throughout the week was in a downtrend, is gradually breaking through support for further assistance. She opened the week at 1.5735 and gradually broke through the intermediate support 1.5670 and 1.56, came under pressure after the announcement of the decision FOMC. However, at the close of the sterling and again lost his position closer to the end of the week, trying to consolidate above 1.5550, but not very successfully.

USD / JPY behaved more cautiously in the week, adhering to a range 77,95-78,50 and ignoring the events in Europe. The only thing that made an impression on the bidders, so the decision FOMCvozderzhatsya from additional economic stimulus in the near future. At this news the price reached a week high of 78.52, entrenched in an hour for 50 points.

The AUD / USD this week had behaved cautiously, keeping the range 1.0440 - 1.0540.

Positive news from China and Australia could not convince her to continue to strengthen the area of 1,0600. However, the weekly maximum of 1.0577 yet been made on the solution at the rate of the ECB. On the positive data from the U.S. Japanese currency has responded by a sharp weakening, losing about 50 basis points.

* Forecast for week 6 - 10 August * In the coming week is not scheduled to release significant macroeconomic statistics that could have a material effect on the position of the U.S. currency. Market participants will digest data on the index of business optimism and the labor market of the United States. The results of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, published on 31 July, the dollar strengthened somewhat, since monetary policy committee has not made significant changes to the official final statement and the likelihood of the announcement of the implementation of the third round of quantitative easing in the next meeting is currently estimated at a much lower than the previous week.

The EUR / USDtakzhe has every chance to spend quite a quiet week, which is not scheduled to release significant macroeconomic statistics or important events. However, in light of heightened after July 31 of the U.S. dollar, as well as the absence of widely expected following a meeting of the ECB statements on the intervention of governments in the bond markets of Spain and Italy, the European currency may continue to decline in the annual News Coverage minimum area of 1.2040. The only factor that can support the euro, we see the increase in appetite for risky assets, which can be formed after the release of good data on the labor market in the U.S. in July.

Bidders for the GBP / USDbudut expected data on the volume of industrial production in July (August 7, 1230 Moscow time) and the traditional quarterly report of the Bank of England (August 8, 1230 Moscow time). Nevertheless, the pound will continue to correlate with the euro and in case of resumption of the downtrend in EUR / USDtselyu motion for him to be 1.5390.

Australian dollar continues to receive support from macroeconomic statistics and feels very confident. However, if the dollar starts to strengthen its position in the market around the pair AUD / USDbudet very difficult to continue an established uptrend and it can be corrected. In this case, it will gradually become attractive for long positions. Especially in the area of support 1.0300. For a pair NZD / USD, traditionally closely linked to the AUD / USD, the same level may be 0.7990. In any case, according to our estimates, and "ausi" and "Kiwi" is not promising for the sales, and much more interesting to search for opportunities to purchase a small "foot".

The Japanese yen has suspended its movement towards 76.00 against the dollar as the parties are afraid of intervention by the regulator. On the night of the 8th to the 9th August the Bank of Japan will announce the results of the next meeting. We do not expect any sign of statements, but admit the possibility of indirect intervention to weaken the yen. At current levels, the USD / JPYobladaet particular interest to open a long-term long positions with stops below the annual minimum.

* Valery Afanasiev Polhovsky and Allen, GC analysts FOREXCLUB * http://www.finmarket.ru/z/comments/view.asp?id=3007793&rid= Finmarket, 03.08.2012, GK "FOREX CLUB" Analytical review and forecast of the FOREX market * WORLD MARKETS: The markets traded in different directions after the ECB meeting * Global stock indexes moved in different directions after the ECB meeting. We estimate the market for a moderately optimistic and expect a slight increase.

The dynamics of the global stock indicators is ambiguous. ECB meeting and subsequent comments were unable to significantly alter the balance of power in equity markets, although it contributed to a slight increase. As expected, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in turn, announced no plans of action that investors could evaluate positively. However, he noted that in the coming weeks an action plan aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for Spain and Italy will be developed. In general, investors, although it had expected the ECB to more specific statements, comments appreciated moderately optimistic.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock indices on the basis of trading on Thursday showed a negative trend. DowJonesIndustrialAveragesnizilsya Index by 0.71% to 12,878.88 points, the S & P 500 lost about the same (0.74%), reaching in 1365 an item at a time as an index of all NASDAQponizilsya by 0.36% to 2909.77 points.

News Coverage Also showed negative dynamics Asian stock indicators. Since Japanese index Nikkeiupal 1.13% to 8555.11 points, while Hong Kong HangSeng-only 0! 2% to 19,666.18 points. At the same time, the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index) rose by 1.02%, reaching the level of 2132.8 points.

The Russian stock indicators also showed growth. The ruble on the MICEX index rose 0.83% to 1408.65 points, while the RTS dollar - 1.55% to 1376.26 points. Among the top gainers on the Russian market stood out paper steel companies. The lowest growth was demonstrated by paper engineering and telecommunications sectors.

It also showed a positive trend and European stock indicators. British FTSEvyros index by 1.52% to 5748.5 points, the French CAC-by 2.71% to reach 3320.19 points, while the German DAX-by 2.49% to reach 6770.5 points.

Positive stock market is supported by the data rather optimistic labor market in the United States. Although the unemployment rate and was slightly higher than expected, yet he was in the predicted range. The number of jobs in the nonfarm sector of the U.S. economy was well above the consensus forecast of the median value while also hitting the projected range.

Futures on the DowJonestorguetsya in the positive zone. Show similar dynamics in the Asian futures indexes. It speaks about the positive mood of investors.

Against this background, we expect a positive opening of trading in the U.S. on Friday, although it does not exclude the sales towards the end of the trading session.

On Monday, we also expect the positive trend in global markets. There were no significant statistical data on Monday will not be published, so, in our opinion, the auction will take place with minimal volatility.

* Analytical Department of Civil FOREX CLUB * http://www.finmarket.ru/z/comments/view.asp?id=3007845&rid= Finmarket, 03/08/2012, Main range of motion of the Euro-dollar is likely to be limited to levels 1,2130-1,2360 - GC "Forex Club" "Beginning next week, does not characterize outstanding. Interesting reports are scheduled.

Most likely, the market will reconsider the decision of central banks and the recent U.S. data.

It is possible that the market will return" bearish "sentiment on the euro, and the prices will drop back to 1.2130 support and further to 1.2100. basic range of motion of the Euro-dollar is likely to be limited to levels 1,2130-1,2360, provided that the new catalysts does not appear in the form of statements by officials or downgrades "- analyst GC "Forex Club" Irina Rogov.

http://www.finmarket.ru/z/experts/view.asp?id= Finmarket, 03/08/2012, There is little doubt that the euro as the currency will continue to exist - GC "Forex Club" News Coverage Unlike his predecessor, former President of the ECB Mr. Trichet, Mario Draghi has a distinct charisma and extremely strong influence on the currency markets, in particular, the behavior of the euro, the analyst specifies the GC "Forex Club" Dmitry Voblikov.

In the currency markets still reeling from the effects of fiery speeches Draghi, spoken to them last week from London, which resulted in the euro came into active movement against the U.S. dollar yesterday as Mario once again set to work and created quite a strong buzz around the euro / dollar. Euro has tested the 1.24 mark, as immediately fell to 1.21. The last time an almost "magical" effect on the behavior of the currency helped the former head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. But, despite the best efforts of Draghi, and failed to convince market participants not to take short positions on the euro. Stating that the euro will exist, and it is irreversible, the chairman of the ECB is not supported, and, conversely, has provoked a wave of selling by market participants.


"There is little doubt that the euro as the currency will continue to exist, - the expert of GC" Forex Club ", but the question is how much will it cost, the currency in the case of the euro zone countries will have to leave it, continues to cause panic on the Stock Exchange and causes triggering such movements. From a technical point of view we expect a downward movement to 1.2150 and from 1.2310 prefer to sell. " http://www.finmarket.ru/z/experts/view.asp?id= AK & M, 03.08.2012, world stock indices move in different directions after the ECB meeting Global stock indexes moved in different directions after the ECB meeting. We estimate the market for a moderately optimistic and expect a slight increase.

The dynamics of the global stock indicators is ambiguous. ECB meeting and subsequent comments were unable to significantly alter the balance of power in equity markets, although it contributed to a slight increase. As expected, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in turn, announced no plans of action that investors could evaluate positively. However, he noted that in the coming weeks an action plan aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for Spain and Italy will be developed. In general, investors, although it had expected the ECB to more specific statements, comments appreciated moderately optimistic.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock indices on the basis of trading on Thursday showed a negative trend. Index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to 12,878.88 points, the S & P 500 lost about the same (0.74%), reaching in 1365 an item while the NASDAQ fell by only 0.36% to the level of 2909.77 points.

Also showed negative dynamics Asian stock indicators. So the Japanese Nikkei index fell by 1.13% to 8555.11 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng - all at 0,! 2% to 19,666.18 points. At the same time, the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index) rose by 1.02%, reaching the level of 2132.8 points.

The Russian stock indicators also showed growth. The ruble on the MICEX index rose 0.83% to 1408.65 points, while the RTS dollar - 1.55% to 1376.26 points. Among the top gainers on the Russian market stood out paper steel companies. The lowest growth was demonstrated by paper engineering and telecommunications sectors.

News Coverage It also showed a positive trend and European stock indicators. The British FTSE index rose 1.52% to 5748.5 points, the French CAC - by 2.71% to reach 3320.19 points, while the German DAX - by 2.49% to reach 6770.5 points.

Positive stock market is supported by the data rather optimistic labor market in the United States. Although the unemployment rate and was slightly higher than expected, yet he was in the predicted range. The number of jobs in the nonfarm sector of the U.S. economy was well above the consensus forecast of the median value while also hitting the projected range.

Futures on the Dow Jones index traded in positive territory. Show similar dynamics in the Asian futures indexes. It speaks about the positive mood of investors.

Against this background, we expect a positive opening of trading in the U.S. on Friday, although it does not exclude the sales towards the end of the trading session.

On Monday, we also expect the positive trend in global markets. There were no significant statistical data on Monday will not be published, so, in our opinion, the auction will take place with minimal volatility.

Analytical Department of Civil FOREX CLUB Kommersant FM, 03.08.2012, the IMF advised Russia to tighten their belts The Foundation recommended that the Russian authorities to tighten fiscal and monetary policies. The IMF has released a document after consultation with the Russian government.

Take into account the advice in Moscow can, but will not follow them, experts believe.

Especially considering the bright campaign promises. Details Alexei Kiselyov.

The Russian economy is on the verge of overheating. To such conclusion experts of the IMF.

Inflation in the country, according to foreign experts, could reach 6.5%, which exceeds the central bank targets of 5-6%. Therefore, Moscow should seriously tighten the belt, enclosed in the Fund. Recommendations will take into account, but to perform one hundred percent of the amount will not be sure Head of Research Group MDS Dmitry Corners.

"IMF recommendations are not binding for Russia. They will be examined, set plans. If we evaluate the percentage of the recommendations of the IMF, which was carried out, as it was more than 50%, probably 70-80%," - he said.

Among the general words of the IMF experts recommended that the Russian Central Bank to consider raising interest rates. Speeches about it now can not be, and the Russian authorities may even go against the advice of the IMF, says the head of analytical department of Forex Club Andrew Dirgin.

"Now is not the central bank to tighten monetary policy later this year. On the contrary, central banks in developing countries, juggle with refinancing rates, lower them, - he said. - I do not exclude such a development, even when a Russian regulator will be forced to mitigate credit monetary policy. If growth slows, the refinancing rate will be reduced. " News Coverage Also, the IMF has traditionally encouraged Russia to hold a series of structural reforms, including pension, to strengthen the fight against corruption and speed up privatization of state enterprises. Considered to be all, experts believe, but certainly not realized in the near future. Earlier, the IMF issued a negative outlook for the development of Russian economy in 2012. According to experts of the Fund, the budget surplus of 0.1% of GDP instead of the previously expected 0.6%. A public debt of the country this year will add more than 3% of GDP in the previous forecast and reach 11.5%.

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc-y/ Big Business, 03.08.2012, Forex Club: stable currency until the At the end of the week the market has experienced disappointment, which resulted in the EUR / USD trades completed in the area of 1.2170 and GBP / USD - 1.5510 in the area.

"During yesterday's meeting of the ECB decided to leave interest rates at a record minimum of 0.75%. In theory, the easiest option for mitigation policies would reduce this rate, perhaps, so EUR / USD began to strengthen the inadequate dramatic day high 1.2411.

However, the subsequent A press conference has put everything in its place: the head of the Central Bank Draghi said that the Governing Council may consider taking further non standard measures and implementation of open market operations under the mandate. But this time, as we expected, nothing happened, then a pair of pierced several levels reached a low 1.2133 and retreated to the area at the close of 1.2170.

Forex Club: key pairs behave safely Today, we have every reason to believe that the NFP will be released in accordance with the forecasts of employment growth of 100 thousand, or even slightly exceed this figure. Let's see, the traditional leading indicators, which we commonly use to predict the official levels.

Consumer Confidence Index has exceeded forecasts, reaching 65.9 against 61.5. Private sector employment from ADP was 163 thousand vs. 120 thousand in the employment component of the ISM manufacturing industry has remained in the growth, though slowed down: 52.0 vs. prev. 56.6. In addition, data released yesterday by the number of applications for benefits b / d have been better than expected, although it reflected a small increase.

However, if you look in retrospect, this light for 2 weeks showed minimal levels since March 2008. This is the same as the expectations of NFP growth of 100 thousand The positive impact of the euro-zone markets - Forex Club Unfortunately, the most accurate leading indicator of the ISM service sector, this time out just after the release of "non-farm," but believe that these signals are enough to convince us in a positive outcome of the report. In this case, USD has strengthened, and in the USD / JPY this happens without any conditionality. The immediate goal will be the level of 78.60 and then 79.15 (the greater the excess of the forecast, the more movement).

Currency behaves ambiguously - Forex Club In such pairs as EUR / USD and GBP / USD dynamics can be distorted by layers of sentiment for riskier assets. In addition, a role for economic data. From the eurozone PMI, we do not expect surprises, and the EUR may well ignore the release. PMI in the UK service sector could continue to grow, thereby stimulating a small pullback of GBP / USD 1.5560 region.

News Coverage The output of "non-farm 'reaction will be determined by the extent of market changes and mood. Recall that very often the first reaction rate is diametrically opposed to that which we have seen a couple of hours. You may want to wait, and after the index trading decisions, " said in a statement Forex Club.

http://www.bigness.ru/news/2012-08-03/forex/136215/ EnergyLand.info, 03.08.2012, oil prices keep rising chances for renewal of the dynamics Despite the negative reaction of investors to comments Draghi, quotes, Light Sweet traded above the $ 86.80 support, which allows to calculate the increase to a level of $ 91.

Brent in the current situation has great potential for recovery in the case of a breakthrough level of $ 107 "bull train" will go to the next stop $ 109.


On Friday, August 3, intense one-week session will close in July U.S. employment report.

According to the consensus forecast of analysts, the world's largest economy will create thousand new jobs in the nonfarm sector. If actual data to find significant differences, the price of oil will be fresh catalyst to growth.

On the world oil market on Thursday, August 2, futures quotes are not able to develop an upward rally, becoming the victim of antiriskovannyh investor sentiment. A barrel of Light Sweet on an urgent Mercantile Exchange NYMEX fell by $ 1.6 to $ 87.27 mark. Price of Brent crude on the ICE electronic Mercantile Exchange closed at $ 0.02 a symbolic red, reaching $ 105.83 a barrel.

The main pressure on the quotes provided results of the ECB meeting, suddenly disappointed investors. In the first half of the trading session, the players bought back contracts with the levels of September 88,70 $ Light, 106 $ Brent, waiting for the optimistic statements from the head of European bank Mario Draghi. The regulator has kept interest rates at 0.75%, which contributed to the growth of the euro in FOREX, and enhance the dynamics of bovine oil contracts.

However, during the press conference, Draghi investors waited for a nasty surprise.

Chairman of the Board of the ECB significantly softened the tone of the issue of exit from the debt crisis, saying the unwillingness alone to pour liquidity into the European financial system.

The reaction of speculators in these comments was unequivocal: the players rushed to sell risky assets by transferring funds to the dollar as a currency safe haven. Futures Light Sweet turned to session highs $ 89.60, after which, weak data on U.S. manufacturing orders (Factory orders fell in June from 0.5% to -0.5%) dropped the U.S. benchmark grade to the lows of the day $ 86.92. In turn, North Sea Brent confined to the lower support level of $ 105, where the continued interest in buying due to the presence of geopolitical factors helped to eliminate most of the quotations of the losses.

Spartak Sobolev, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB http://energyland.info/news-show-tek-neftegaz- News Coverage SCREEN, 03/08/2012, Analytical Review of the FOREX market for Thursday, August 2, Not very adequate initial response to the ECB rate decision was over-after all it is quite logical: Draghi, presented nothing new, the market was disappointed. As a result, EUR / USD trades completed in the area of 1.2170 and GBP / USD - 1.5510 in the area.

During yesterday's meeting of the ECB decided to leave interest rates at a record minimum of 0.75%. Conceptually, the simplest option would be to mitigate policy rate cut is probably why EUR / USD began to strengthen the inadequate dramatic day high 1.2411. However, the subsequent press conference has put everything in its place: the head of the Central Bank Draghi said that the Governing Council may consider taking further non-standard measures and implementation of open market operations under the mandate. But this time, as we expected, nothing happened, then a pair of pierced several levels reached a low 1.2133 and retreated to the area at the close of 1.2170.

In GBP / USD, we noted a much more moderate trend. By analogy with a colleague, a pair of initially peaked at 1.5676, but then followed down to a minimum of 1.5489, completing trades near 1.5500. The construction sector was pleased, showing the growth rate to 50.9 vs.

48.7. A Bank of England, as expected, decided to retain the scope of the program of asset purchases, as the authorities have decided to wait for the effect of the measures already taken to promote and set up credit programs.

USD / JPY has remained in its wake, began trading at 78.40, in the middle of the day rolled down to a minimum of 78.12 and a little entrenched the end of trading up to 78.20.

Economic data from the United States have been mixed: Challenger layoffs declined slightly, but the number of Americans, last week for the first time filling out the form to receive benefits b / d, increased.

Despite the fact that the AUD / USD at the end of the trading day lost all earned, in his happiest moments were yesterday. In the morning a couple was supported by economic data: Australian retail sales rose more predictions for 1% to A $ 21.6 billion, seasonally weighted country's trade balance reflected a small surplus in June, as imports decreased while more than exports. This helped the pair score of 50 points, while the ECB rate decision on prices slipped to a maximum of 1.0577. However, after that we saw a decline, which led to the area of AUD 1.0451 to close.

Forecast for Friday, August 3, Today, we have every reason to believe that the NFP will be released in accordance with the forecasts of employment growth of 100 thousand, or even slightly exceed this figure. Let's see, the traditional leading indicators, which we commonly use to predict the official levels.

Consumer Confidence Index has exceeded forecasts, reaching 65.9 against 61.5. Private sector employment from ADP was 163 thousand vs. 120 thousand in the employment component of the ISM manufacturing industry has remained in the growth, though slowed down: 52.0 vs. prev. 56.6. In addition, data released yesterday by the number of applications for benefits b / d have been better than expected, although it reflected a small increase.

However, if you look in retrospect, this light for 2 weeks showed minimal levels since March 2008. This is the same as the expectations of NFP growth of 100 thousand Unfortunately, the most accurate leading indicator of the ISM service sector, this time out just after the release of "non-farm," but believe that these signals are enough to convince us in a positive outcome of the report. In this case, USD has strengthened, and in the USD / JPY this happens without any conditionality. The immediate goal will be the level of 78.60 and then 79.15 (the greater the excess of the forecast, the more movement).

In such pairs as EUR / USD and GBP / USD dynamics can be distorted by layers of sentiment for riskier assets. In addition, a role for economic data. From the eurozone PMI, we do not expect surprises, and the EUR may well ignore the release. PMI in the UK service sector News Coverage could continue to grow, thereby stimulating a small pullback of GBP / USD 1.5560 region.

The output of "non-farm 'reaction will be determined by the extent of market changes and mood. Recall that very often the first reaction rate is diametrically opposed to that which we have seen a couple of hours. You may want to wait, and after the index trading decisions.

AUD / USD in the morning may show variations under the influence of data from China. If the PMI indices in services continue to indicate a cooling of the economy, the couple could come under pressure from the primary goal at 1.0400.

SCREEN, 03/08/2012, ALYUTNY MARKET: Euro-Dollar recovers before the weekend Review After the ups and downs of a couple of Thursday's on Friday restored. Prices on the level of resistance close to 1.2166 1.2260. In part this is due to the closure of the dynamics of short positions on the euro. Pair received little support on the part of the data on business activity.

The composite PMI index rose to 46.5 in July, against 46.4 a month earlier, but is still below 50, which separates the increased activity of its recession. But there is still data on the U.S.

labor market, which necessarily will make adjustments to the dynamics. Employment growth may support the dollar and in this case the possible return of the price of 1.2200 and 1.2160. But these figures may also cause increased interest in risk. Then the pair rush to resistance 1.2360.

Forecast The beginning of the week does not characterize outstanding. An interesting report has been scheduled. Most likely, the market will reconsider the decision of central banks and the recent U.S. data. It is possible that the market return to bearish sentiment on the euro and the price will drop back to 1.2130 support and further to 1.2100. The basic range of motion of the Euro-dollar is likely to be limited to the levels of 1.2130 - 1.2360, provided that the new catalysts does not appear in the form of statements by officials or downgrades.

Irina Rogov, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 03/08/2012, MACROECONOMICS: global industry plunges into recession, the global PMI index fell again In July, the index of global business activity, calculated by the bank JPMorgan, QM 48.4% versus 49.1% in June. This is the lowest since June 2009. Reducing this figure continues to February this year, and he was the second consecutive month below the bordering recession level of 50%. The main cause of deterioration in global economic activity in July, is a debt crisis in Europe, while the figures the U.S., Brazil and most Asian countries were, at best, weak.

Indeed, there has been a strong decline in the index of business activity in the industrial sector (PMI) in the eurozone and the UK. Thus, the indicator in the euro area in July fell to 44.1%, while in the UK - up to 45.4%. Four other European countries recorded a drop in production in July.

In the U.S., the PMI index is below 50% for the second consecutive month. In Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, the fall in production has accelerated. At the same time, the situation improved somewhat in this sector in Brazil and China.

News Coverage The most striking indicators of increased production in July were the following countries:

Canada, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Mexico, Russia and South Africa.

The fall in the global industry and a decrease due to the number of new orders. This figure falls the second consecutive month and now stands at 47.2%. The volume of international trade have fallen to the level of April 2009.

The index of global employment growth was also below 50% the first time since November 2009 - In July the figure was 49.5%. Unemployment in the euro area last month was 11.2%, which is the highest value since 1995. Creating new jobs in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell to lows over the past two and a half years. Also in July, fell sharply the number of hired personnel in China - at least since March 2009. In Japan, the UK and India, the number of employed non-farm payrolls rose only slightly. Substantial employment growth in July were noted only Canada and Mexico. Given that global demand remains weak and is likely to further decline in industrial production, it is likely that global unemployment in coming months will increase.

It should be noted that in July the second month in a row there was a reduction of price pressure. The corresponding index was 44.5% versus 44.8% in June. In most countries, to reduce production costs. Exceptions were Denmark, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia.

Reporting on Global PMI index for July shows a drop in demand and decline in employment on the background of the debt crisis in the euro area and slowing global economy. Current spending cuts provide some support for production, but this is not enough for the growth of the global industry in the fall in global demand. Against the background of reluctance to the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB to start the third program of quantitative easing, the economy (QE3 and LTRO), the global industry will continue to decline, and global index PMI remain below 50%.

Maria Salnikov, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 03/08/2012, WORLD MARKETS: The markets traded in different directions after the ECB meeting Global stock indexes moved in different directions after the ECB meeting. We estimate the market for a moderately optimistic and expect a slight increase.

The dynamics of the global stock indicators is ambiguous. ECB meeting and subsequent comments were unable to significantly alter the balance of power in equity markets, although it contributed to a slight increase. As expected, the ECB left its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in turn, announced no plans of action that investors could evaluate positively. However, he noted that in the coming weeks an action plan aimed at reducing the cost of borrowing for Spain and Italy will be developed. In general, investors, although it had expected the ECB to more specific statements, comments appreciated moderately optimistic.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock indices on the basis of trading on Thursday showed a negative trend. Index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to 12,878.88 points, the S & P 500 lost about the same (0.74%), reaching in 1365 an item while the NASDAQ fell by only 0.36% to the level of 2909.77 points.

Also showed negative dynamics Asian stock indicators. So the Japanese Nikkei index fell by 1.13% to 8555.11 points, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng - all at 0,! 2% to 19,666.18 points. At the same time, the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index) rose by 1.02%, reaching the level of 2132.8 points.

News Coverage The Russian stock indicators also showed growth. The ruble on the MICEX index rose 0.83% to 1408.65 points, while the RTS dollar - 1.55% to 1376.26 points. Among the top gainers on the Russian market stood out paper steel companies. The lowest growth was demonstrated by paper engineering and telecommunications sectors.

It also showed a positive trend and European stock indicators. The British FTSE index rose 1.52% to 5748.5 points, the French CAC - by 2.71% to reach 3320.19 points, while the German DAX - by 2.49% to reach 6770.5 points.

Positive stock market is supported by the data rather optimistic labor market in the United States. Although the unemployment rate and was slightly higher than expected, yet he was in the predicted range. The number of jobs in the nonfarm sector of the U.S. economy was well above the consensus forecast of the median value while also hitting the projected range.

Futures on the Dow Jones index traded in positive territory. Show similar dynamics in the Asian futures indexes. It speaks about the positive mood of investors.

Against this background, we expect a positive opening of trading in the U.S. on Friday, although it does not exclude the sales towards the end of the trading session.

On Monday, we also expect the positive trend in global markets. There were no significant statistical data on Monday will not be published, so, in our opinion, the auction will take place with minimal volatility.

Analytical Department of Civil FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 03/08/2012, OIL: Speculators are still looking up On the world oil market on Thursday, August 2, futures quotes are not able to develop an upward rally, becoming the "victim" antiriskovannyh investor sentiment. A barrel of Light Sweet on an urgent Mercantile Exchange NYMEX fell by $ 1.6 to $ 87.27 mark. Price of Brent crude on the ICE electronic Mercantile Exchange closed at $ 0.02 a symbolic red, reaching $ 105.83 a barrel.

According to our observations, the main pressure on the quotes of "black gold" have had the outcome of the ECB meeting, suddenly disappointed investors. In the first half of the trading session, the players bought back contracts with the levels of September 88,70 $ Light, 106 $ Brent, waiting for the optimistic statements from the head of European bank Mario Draghi.

The regulator has kept interest rates at 0.75%, which contributed to the growth of the euro in FOREX, and enhance the dynamics of bovine oil contracts. However, during the press conference, Draghi investors waited for a nasty surprise. Chairman of the Board of the ECB significantly softened the tone of the issue of exit from the debt crisis, saying the unwillingness alone to pour liquidity into the European financial system. The reaction of speculators in these comments was unequivocal: the players rushed to sell risky assets by transferring funds into the dollar as the currency of "safe haven". Futures Light Sweet turned to session highs $ 89.60, after which, weak data on U.S. manufacturing orders (Factory orders fell in June from 0.5% to -0.5%) dropped the U.S. benchmark grade to the lows of the day $ 86.92. In turn, North Sea Brent confined to the lower support level of $ 105, where the continued interest in buying due to the presence of geopolitical factors helped to eliminate most of the quotations of the losses.

News Coverage On Friday, August 3, intense one-week session of "close" the July report on U.S.

employment. According to the consensus forecast of analysts, the world's largest economy will create 100 thousand new jobs in the nonfarm sector. If actual data to find significant differences, the price of oil will be fresh catalyst to growth.

According to our estimates, despite the negative reaction of investors to comments Draghi, oil prices remain the chances for resuming an upward trend. Quotes Light Sweet traded above $ 86.80 Technical support, which allows to calculate the increase to a level of $ 91.

Brent d current situation has great potential for recovery in the case of a breakthrough level of $ 107 "bull train" will go to the next stop $ 109.

Spartak Sobolev, an analyst at GK FOREX CLUB SCREEN, 03/08/2012, Metal Market quotations of gold and copper declined against the background of frustration on the decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB Earlier this week, gold traded slightly lower, focusing on the currency markets. At the same time, prices remained within a narrow range as investors remained cautious ahead of the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB's interest rate, and also evaluated the possibility of additional stimulus from central banks.

However, on Wednesday, August 1 gold quotations were again under pressure, a negative background was caused by the publication of more favorable-than-expected data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the U.S., as well as a statement of the American regulator for new stimulus measures quantitatively the largest economy in the world.

Indeed, according to the reported data rate in July rose to 163.0 million versus estimated 108.0 thousand U.S. Fed Inaction is also disappointed market participants, triggering the growth of the U.S. currency, thereby intensifying the pressure on the quotations of the yellow metal.

The most significant decline in gold is shown Thursday, August 2 against a background of general decline in prices for commodities and commodity assets because of disappointment over the fact that the European regulator has left monetary policy unchanged at its meeting, and introduced new incentives to help help the European economy.

At the end of the week gold was traded mainly with the increase, while market participants are expecting the release of data from the U.S. labor market in July. However, the published positive data on the number of new jobs in the nonfarm sector of the U.S. provoked the sale of gold. As a result, the price of gold for the current week declined by 2.17% to 1587.34 U.S.

dollars per troy ounce.

This week is possible continued decline of gold against a background of continued sluggish physical demand, as well as the anticipated growth in the U.S. currency. Most likely, the market will reconsider the decision of central banks, and quotes the yellow metal will fall back to the level of support for 1560.0 U.S. dollars per troy ounce.



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