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728. Saad L. July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108676/July-Leader-Lost-Last-Competitive-US-Elections.aspx.

729. Baudinet M. Time Is on My Side: The Nomination Gap.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=MAB2008062601.

730. Abramowitz A. I. Is Time on John McCains Side?

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan _i_abramowitz/is_time_on_john_mccain_s_side.

731. Abramowitz A., Mann T. E., Sabato L. J. The Myth of a Toss-Up Election. http://www.ras mussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_alan_i_abramo witz/the_myth_of_a_toss_up_election.

732. Newport F. Shifts in Last Two Months of Election Not Uncommon. Average Change in Gap Since 1936 is 6.6 Points. http://www.gallup.com/poll/110074/Shifts-Last-Two Months-Election-Uncommon.aspx.

733. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election 2008.aspx.

734. Abramowitz A. Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model.

http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/PSOct08Abramowitz.pdf.

735. Site Note. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/site-note.html.

736. Silver N. Black, Youth and Latino Turnout, and Obamas Electoral Map.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html.

737. . . -: . .: , 2006. . 94101.

738. Barone M. Ghosts of 1976 in Todays Campaign.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_mich ael_barone/ghosts_of_1976_in_today_s_campaign.

632 739. McCains Enthusiasm Gap, Obamas Unity Gap. http://people press.org/reports/pdf/436.pdf.

740. Ibid.

741. Newport F. McCains Age Seen as More of a Problem than Obamas Race.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108712/McCains-Age-Seen-More-Problem-Than-Obamas Race.aspx.

742. CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. June, 2629.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/07/04/rel8i.pdf.

743. More Voters than Ever Say They Would Vote for Black Candidate, Still Not Sure About Friends. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/more_voters_than_ever_say_they_would_vote_for_black_candidate_still_ not_sure_about_friends.

744. CBS News/New York Times Poll. Jan., 912, 2008. http://www.pollingreport.com/poli tics.htm.

745. Barone M. Obamas Candidacy is a Test. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/arti cles/2008/07/obamas_candidacy_is_a_test.html.

746. Partisan Trends. Number of Democrats in US Declines in July.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/p artisan_trends.

747. Newport F., Jones J. M. Assessing the Impact of Obamas Trip.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109132/Assessing-Impact-Obamas-Trip.aspx.

748. Newport F. Who Are Likely Voters and When Do They Matter?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109135/Who-Likely-Voters-When-They-Matter.aspx.

749. Barone M. Polls Continue to Show an Unstable Presidential Campaign. http://rasmussen reports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/polls_ continue_to_show_an_unstable_presidential_campaign.

750. Voters Trust for McCain on Key Issues Growing.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_e lection/voters_trust_for_mccain_on_key_issues_growing.

751. Jeffrey M. Jones Support for Third-Party Candidates Appears Limited thus Far.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109435/Support-ThirdParty-Candidates-Appears-Limited Thus-Far.aspx.

752. 49% Say Hillary Likely to Overshadow Obama at Convention. http://www.rasmussenre ports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_elec tion/49_say_hillary_likely_to_overshadow_obama_at_convention.

753. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow General-Election.aspx.

754. Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama. Obama Loses Ground Among Dems, Women, Catholics & Even Younger Voters.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm?ID=1541.

755. Zogby J. Obama in Denver: A Defining Moment.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.cfm.

756. Ibid.

757. Gallups Pre-Convention Poll Points Election Insights Heading into a Key Stretch of the 2008 Presidential Race. http://www.gallup.com/poll/109762/Gallups-PreConvention-Poll Points.aspx.

758. Schneider B. Why Party Conventions Still Exist. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLI TICS/08/22/schneider.conventions/index.html.

759. Party Time: Democrats Primed To Tune into Convention.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/931/news-interest-democratic-convention.

760. Half of Democrats Say Putting Hillarys Name in Nomination Will Help Unify Party.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/half_of_democrats_say_putting_hillary_s_name_in_nomination_will_help _unify_party.

761. Mears W. R. Former Gov. Warner: Party Must Seize Opportunity. http://www.huffington post.com/2008/08/26/former-gov-warner-party-m_n_121648.html.

762. Lindlaw S. Bill Clinton forcefully endorses Obama at DNC.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/WireStory?id=5671072&page=1.

763. More Clintonites Backing Obama. http://www.gallup.com/video/109969/More-Clintonites Backing-Obama.aspx.

764. Jones J. M. Hillary Clintons Speech Well-Received.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109909/Hillary-Clintons-Speech-WellReceived.aspx.

765. Mears W. R. Biden Says Nation Needs More than a Good Soldier.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/topstories/2008-08-27-1600255228_x.htm.

766. Obama B. The American Promise.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/the_american_promise.html.

767. Jones J. M. Obama Acceptance Speech Gets High Marks from Public.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109948/Obama-Acceptance-Speech-Gets-High-Marks-From Public.aspx.

768. Jones J. M. Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce.Party, Order of Convention has Made Little Difference in Size of Bounce.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109702/Conventions-Typically-Result-FivePoint Bounce.aspx.

769. Jones J. Gallup Daily: Race Tied as Democratic Convention Starts.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109792/Gallup-Daily-Race-Tied-Democratic-Convention Starts.aspx.

770. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election 2008.aspx.

771. Sarah Palins Speech at the Republican National Convention.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/conventions/videos/20080903_PALIN_SPEE CH.html#.

772. Schneider B. Analysis: McCain Sincere, Short on Answers.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/05/schneider.speech/index.html.

773. Newport F. Republicans Enthusiasm Jumps After Convention.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110107/Republicans-Enthusiasm-Jumps-After-Convention.aspx.

774. Gallup Daily: Election 2008. http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Interactive-Graph-Follow General-Election.aspx.

775. Ibid.

776. How do Gallups likely voter models work? http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/How Gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx.

777. Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional). http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx.

634 778. Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded). http://www.gallup.com/poll/111121/Gallup-Daily Likely-Voters-Expanded.aspx.

779. Early Read on Early Voting, Could Reach 30%. Obama and McCain Supporters Voting Early at About the Same Rate. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/early-voting-now-11-coul dreach-30.aspx.

780. Newport F. Early Voting Now Up to 18%. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111580/Early Voting-Now-18.aspx.

781. Gallup Daily: Early Voting. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111304/Gallup-Daily-Early Voting.aspx.

782. Jeffrey M. J. Recent Obama Surge Evident Among Men, Less Educated.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111205/Recent-Obama-Surge-Evident-Among-Men-Less Educated.aspx.

783. Newport F., Jones J. M. Young Voters Favor Obama, but How Many Will Vote?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111310/Young-Voters-Favor-Obama-How-Many-Will-Vote.aspx.

784. Newport F. Hispanic Voters Divided by Religion.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111301/Hispanic-Voters-Divided-Religion.aspx.

785. Saad L. Obama Winning Over the Jewish Vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111424/Obama-Winning-Over-Jewish-Vote.aspx.

786. Newport F. McCain Still Dominant Among the Highly Religious.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109678/McCain-Still-Dominant-Among-Highly-Religious.aspx.

787. Newport F. Religion Remains Major Dividing Factor Among White Voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-Among White-Voters.aspx.

788. Newport F. As the Economy Goes, So Goes the Vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111283/Economy-Goes-Goes-Vote.aspx.

789. Pelham B. Life Satisfaction Predicts Voter Preferences.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111694/Life-Satisfaction-Predicts-Voter-Preferences.aspx.

790. Candidate Support by Political Party and Ideology.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108049/Candidate-Support-Political-Party-Ideology.aspx.

791. Saad L. McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx.

792. Zogby Electoral Map: Obama Falls Below Needed 270 as McCain Rises. Florida to McCain, as Colorado and New Hampshire Now Too Close to Call.

http://www.zogby.com/news/readnews.dbm?ID=1543.

793. Stern C. Obama Will Win Colorado, Beating McCain, Denver Mayor Says. http://www.bloomber gradio.us/apps/news?pid=20601070&refer=politics&sid=aV.HVgqmd6uw.

794. Candidate Support by Red, Purple, and Blue States.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108061/Candidate-Support-Red-Purple-Blue-States.aspx.

795. FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling October 26, 2008.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_octo ber_26_2008.

796. Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con tent/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_flori da_presidential_election.

797. Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con tent/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election.

798. Election 2008: North Carolina Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/elec tion_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_pres idential_election.

799. Election 2008: Indiana Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/elec tion_20082/2008_presidential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_elec tion.

800. Electoral College Update. http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elec tion_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update.

801. Road to 270: Indiana. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/road-to-270-indiana.html.

802. Road to 270: Virginia. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-virginia.html.

803. Most Adults Say Starbucks is Overpriced. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con tent/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/most_adults_say_starbucks_is_overpriced.

804. Americans Still Like Wal-Mart, Say Its Good for the Community. http://www.rasmussen reports.com/public_content/business/general_business/americans_still_like_wal_mart_say _it_s_good_for_the_community.

805. Virginia. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-virginia.html.

806. Ohio. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/road-to-270-ohio.html.

807. Florida. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/road-to-270-florida.html.

808. Saad L. Blacks, Postgrads, Young Adults Help Obama Prevail.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111781/Blacks-Postgrads-Young-Adults-Help-Obama Prevail.aspx.

809. Voter Turnout in the United States Presidential Elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections.

810. United States Presidential Election, 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Turnout.

811. Newport F. Americans See Obama Election as Race Relations Milestone. http://www.gallup.com/ poll/111817/Americans-See-Obama-Election-Race-Relations-Milestone.aspx.

812. Saad L. Nearly Half of Conservatives Confident in Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111880/Nearly-Half-Conservatives-Confident-Obama.aspx.

813. Inside Obamas Sweeping Victory. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1023/exit-poll-analysis-2008.

814. Exit Polls. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1.

815. Selected Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/09/selected-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004 2008/#comment-5146.

816. U.S. President / National / Exit Poll.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html.

636 817. More Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/10/more-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004-2008/.

818. Ibid.

819. Inside Obamas Sweeping Victory. http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1023/exit-poll-analysis-2008.

820. Zogby J. Americans Dream Simpler Dreams Part I: The Consumers.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1656.

821. Zogby J. Americans Dream Simpler Dreams Part II: The Voters.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1658/.

822. More Exit Poll Comparisons, 200020042008.

http://observationalism.com/2008/11/10/more-exit-poll-comparisons-2000-2004-2008/.

823. Voter Turnout in the United States Presidential Elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections.

824. Klinker P.A., Schaller T. LBJs Revenge: The 2008 Election and the Rise of the Great Society Coalition // The Forum. 2008. V. 6. Issue 4. http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcon tent.cgi?article=1269&context=forum.

825. United States Presidential Election Results. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

826. Electoral History Charts. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/electoral-history charts.html.

827. The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game? http:// www.fivethir tyeight.com/2008/11/contact-gap-proof-of-importance-of.html.

828. Dave Leips Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

829. Franklin C. Undecided Voters and Racial Attitudes. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/unde cided_voters_and_racial_at.php.

830. NCPP Analysis of Final Presedential Pre-Election Pools, 2008.

http://www.ncpp.org/files/NCPP_2008_analysis_of_election_polls_121808%20pdf_0.pdf.

831. General Election: McCain vs. Obama. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/presi dent/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html.

832. Blumenthal M. Pollster Accuracy and the National Polls By.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pollster_accuracy_and_the_nati.php.

833. Candidate Estimate Errors. http://ncpp.org/files/08FNL_NCPP_Natl_Polls.pdf.

834. Focus: 2008 Presidential Election. http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/accuracy/fallwin ter2008/news.html#FPE.

835. Election Results Further Validate Efficacy of Harris Interactives Online Methodology.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=1347.

836. Ibid.

837. Ibid.

838. Ibid 839. Comparison Tables: 2008 Zogby International Polling Numbers.

http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.cfm?ID=170.

840. Election 2008: Ohio Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con tent/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohi o_presidential_election.

841. Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election.

842. Election 2008: Indiana Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/indiana/election_2008_indiana_presidential_election.

843. Election 2008: Nevada Presidential Election.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presi dential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election.

844. Election 2008: Virginia Presidential Election. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_con tent/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_vir ginia_presidential_election.


845. Morales L. Most Americans Closely Watching Obamas Transition.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111970/Most-Americans-Closely-Watching-Obamas Transition.aspx.

846. Morales L. Gallup Daily: Tracking the New Administrations Progress.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111739/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-New-Administrations Progress.aspx.

847. Gallup Daily: Confidence in Obama. http://www.gallup.com/poll/112006/Gallup-Daily Confidence-Obama.aspx.

848. Saad L. Nearly Half of Conservatives Confident in Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111880/Nearly-Half-Conservatives-Confident-Obama.aspx.

849. Newport F. Americans Remain Confident in Obama as President.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112279/Americans-Remain-Confident-Obama President.aspx.

850. Gallup Daily: Obama Favorability. http://www.gallup.com/poll/111772/Gallup-Daily Obama-Favorability.aspx.

851. Jones J. M. Economy Runaway Winner as Most Important Problem.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112093/Economy-Runaway-Winner-Most-Important Problem.aspx.

852. Saad L. Idea of Economic Depression Becoming Less Far-Fetched.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113509/Idea-Economic-Depression-Becoming-Less FarFetched.aspx#1.

853. Jones J. M. Economy Runaway Winner as Most Important Problem.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112093/Economy-Runaway-Winner-Most-Important Problem.aspx.

854. Ibid.

855. Jones J. M. Personal Satisfaction Ratings Decline to Lowest Since 1992.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113050/Personal-Satisfaction-Ratings-Decline-Lowest-Since 1992.aspx.

856. Saad L. Americans Christmas Budget Falls $200 Below Last Years.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113203/Americans-Christmas-Budget-Falls-200-Below-Last Years.aspx.

857. Saad L., Jones J. M. Gains under Bush Seen on AIDS, Race Relations, Little Else.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113680/gains-under-bush-seen-aids-race-relations-little else.aspx.

858. Saad L. Obama and Bush: A Contrast in Popularity.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111838/Obama-Bush-Contrast-Popularity.aspx.

638 859. Jones J. M. Americans Hopeful Obama Can Accomplish Most Key Goals.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111853/Americans-Hopeful-Obama-Can-Accomplish-Most Key-Goals.aspx.

860. Ibid.

861. Newport F. Obama Wins 83% Approval Rating for Transition.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113824/Obama-Wins-83-Approval-Rating-Transition.aspx.

862. Jones J. M. Obama National Security Picks Get High Marks.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/112804/Obama-National-Security-Picks-Get-High Marks.aspx.

863. Jones J. M. Domestic Priorities Top Americans To-Do List for Obama.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113869/Domestic-Priorities-Top-Americans-List Obama.aspx.

864. Saad L. In U.S., 60% Tuned In to Inauguration as It Happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113920/Tuned-Inauguration-Happened.aspx.

865. Morales L. Americans Anticipate Historic Inauguration, Excellent Speech.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113848/Americans-Anticipate-Historic-Inauguration-Excellent Speech.aspx.

866. President Obamas Inaugural Address. http://www.america.gov/st/usg english/2009/January/20090120130302abretnuh0.2991602.html.

867. Morales L. Americans Anticipate Historic Inauguration, Excellent Speech.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113848/Americans-Anticipate-Historic-Inauguration-Excellent Speech.aspx.

868. Saad L. In U.S., 60% Turned In to Inauguration as It Happened.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113920/Tuned-Inauguration-Happened.aspx.

869. . . . . . . .:

, 1972.

870. / . . . , . . . .: , 1980.

871. // . . . . . : , 1974.

872. ., . : // : . 1999. 6. . 29.

http://www.pseudology.org/Gallup/Doktorov.htm.

873. Page B. I., Shapiro R. Y. The Rational Public. Fifty Years of Trends in Americans Policy Preferences. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1992.

874. . . : . . .: , 2008.

http://www.pseudology.org/Gallup/ReklamaOprosy.pdf.

875. . . -. . .:

, 2006.

http://www.sheregi.ru/files/Doktorov_001_488t.pdf.

876. Jones J. M. John Edwards, Sarah Palin Both See Favorable Ratings Slide.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/123698/John-Edwards-Sarah-Palin-Favorable-Ratings Slide.aspx.

877. 27% Say Hillary Would Be Better President than Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/novem ber_2009/27_say_hillary_would_be_better_president_than_obama.

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